China’s economic growth will stagnate, at best, rather than revive. Lower valuations of Chinese equities are justified, and share prices have more downside. The RMB will continue to depreciate versus the US dollar.
BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service studied the SIFIs’ earnings calls for insights into borrower performance, lender willingness, liquidity and the actions and intentions of households and businesses.…
Europe’s weak patch is not about the ECB’s policy tightening, at least not yet. 2024 is another story, and the ECB’s policy will prompt a Eurozone’s recession around the summer.
Earlier this year we highlighted that China's property market dynamics pose a greater risk to the price of steel vis-à-vis copper. This view was based on the expectation that Chinese policymakers will direct financing…
A powerful feature of the Equity Analyzer platform is its breadth of coverage: roughly 13 thousand stocks trading on MSCI Developed Market exchanges. Since we have a cross-section of the same stock level data across multiple…
US equities have somewhat stabilized since the beginning of October. After falling by 6.6% in the prior two months, the S&P 500 ended the day on Wednesday 0.6% above where it was at the end of September. Indeed, recent…
The Hamas attack against Israel, timed almost 50 years to the day after a similar surprise attack on Yom Kippur of 1973, has evoked parallels with the 1970s. Parallels not only with Middle Eastern geopolitics then and now, but also…
Q3-2023 is expected to mark the end of the earnings recession for the past three quarters, opening the door to positive earnings growth. Whether that would be sustainable or will sputter once the recession settles in as expected in…
More equity volatility is coming in the short run. Trump’s nomination looks to be smooth, which marginally reduces the incumbent party advantage and increases policy uncertainty.
As global financial institutions like the IMF draw attention to the real-estate crisis in China, the CCP will be forced to step up regulatory and restructuring efforts to contain its spread and limit further contagion domestically…