According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European automobile and components stocks will suffer over the coming years. The European automobile and components equity sector is cheap, trading at a…
The sharp sell-off in long duration bonds (ticker TLT) has reached the collapsed 130-day complexity that implies a probable and playable rebound. More strategically, long-duration bonds yielding close to 5 percent are an excellent…
The market has been held hostage by surging rates. Zombie companies are “alive” and are multiplying – they are highly sensitive to surging borrowing costs. Underweight Utilities to reduce portfolio duration. Maintain neutral…
We unveil the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator as a much better version of the Federal Reserve’s own ‘Sahm rule’. And we identify what would trigger these recession indicators in this week’s and future US jobs reports. Plus…
The S&P 500’s performance deteriorated significantly in Q3. After having soared by nearly 16% in the first half of the year, the index ended the third quarter with a 3.7% loss. True, a surge in AI winners drove the H1…
We present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2023.
Aggressive monetary tightening has always led to recession, although the timing is uncertain. The effects of high interest rates are starting to be felt. Investors should stay risk off and buy government bonds as a safe haven…
Downside risks to equities are building. Rates, the dollar, and energy prices will remain elevated into yearend. This trifecta makes a soft landing less likely than before and hurts corporate profits and multiples. However, high cash…