While we are sympathetic to the view that the Fed could temporarily achieve a soft landing, we are skeptical that it could stick that landing for very long. Stocks could strengthen into year-end, with small caps potentially leading…
The S&P 500 Energy sector’s fortunes have recently reversed. After having been the worst performing sector in the first half of the year — losing 7.3% versus the S&P 500’s 15.9% gain — Energy is…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2023.
Strategists arguing for an end of the outperformance of US equities over international stocks have pointed to the lofty valuations of American stocks vis-à-vis their global counterparts. Moreover, they have highlighted…
The geopolitical backdrop remains negative despite some marginally less negative news. China’s stimulus is not yet large or fast enough to prevent a market riot. Two of our preferred equity regions, ASEAN and Europe, are struggling…
The broader rally that started in June is premised on a Goldilocks narrative that will prove to be a fairy tale. Either by stubborn inflation. Or, by higher unemployment that shows that the war on inflation is far from costless. Or,…
The resiliency of consumers through 2023 has surprised investors. However, consumer strength will fade into yearend as factors supporting growth in income and spending are waning. i.e., job gains are slowing, wage growth is…
The stock market’s pre-eminent growth sector is not US technology, it is French luxury goods. On most time horizons over the past decades, French luxuries have trumped US technology on profit growth, price performance and…