The stratospheric valuation of this year’s AI mania is likely to deflate, just as it did after the Web 1.0 mania of the late 90s. We go through some long-term and short-term investment implications.
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2023.
Positive economic surprises have delayed the onset of recession in the United States. But tighter monetary and fiscal policy, slowing global growth, and a looming rebound in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk suggest that…
Seven of the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors are in the green on a year-to-date basis, led by those that benefitted from the AI frenzy: Information Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary. In fact, the…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, residential REITs, homebuilders, and durable goods manufacturers are the beneficiaries of the negative supply shock in residential housing. Shortage of inventories…
The world economy is likely already in recession, defined as world growth dipping to sub-2 percent. So far, the world recession has been China-led, but in the coming months it will change to being developed economy-led. Hence, while…
On a 12-month investment horizon, BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service recommends a defensive stance: Overweight government bonds, and underweight equities and credit. The US stock market trades on 19x forward…
Recession is on track to start around year-end. Stocks usually peak shortly before recession begins. So, position defensively but be prepared for a few more months of the rally.
In June, the rally gained momentum and broadened due to positive economic data, particularly in the housing market. We expect cheaper cyclical sectors and styles to mark a change in leadership as the rally broadens, helped on by…
In their just-published update of US housing market conditions, our colleagues at the BCA Bank Credit Analyst focus on whether May’s strong showing in new home starts and sales in May – up 21% and 12%,…