Expectations for oil demand growth through 2023-24 are way too optimistic. Until these expectations fall to -0.5-1 percent, the oil price has further downside. Plus: collapsed complexity confirms that AI is in a mania, while basic…
President Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party emerged as the winner of the Turkish general election which was concluded yesterday. This victory means that their expansive policies of the past decade will continue, and…
One of the features of the Q1 earnings season is that the market response to positive earnings surprises has been relatively muted. According to the latest Earnings Insight from FactSet, the average price increase of 0.5% (during…
The debt ceiling game’s endpoint will avoid default only if it implies economic pain. For the Republicans, the best strategy is not to lift the debt ceiling unless the Democrats cut spending a lot, or unless the economy starts to…
The Q1-2023 earnings season has surprised as companies’ results point to the end of the earnings recession. However, the good news is already priced in – the market has barely budged over the past six weeks. Earnings rebound may…
In this US Bond Strategy Insight we discuss the outlook for bank bonds.
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, investors should stay underweight banks on a tactical investment horizon as the banking turmoil is far from over, and the industry’s profitability will be under…
The S&P 500 Industrials index has gained 19% since its October 2022 lows and outperformed the S&P 500 gains of 15%. The sector has benefitted from American companies' efforts to "onshore" supply chains, but…