China's recovery will be driven by consumer spending in general and on services in particular, while industrial sectors will disappoint.

We Introduce our new macro models for the Eurozone’s equity earnings, which include sectoral forecasts. Find out what they predict for the next six-to-nine months.

Special Report

The YTD market rally was driven by outperformance of high-quality growth stocks which offer protection in uncertain times. As growth continues to slow, high-quality growth stocks should continue to do well. Hence, we are moving to…

Innovative Tech will face macroeconomic headwinds in a new “higher for longer” interest regime. Yet, the long-term opportunity of the cohort is tremendous. Investors need to be judicious with the timing of adding new capital to…

No, the secular rise in geopolitical risk has not peaked. EU-China trade ties underscore the multipolar context, but this multipolarity is unbalanced, as the US has not reached a new equilibrium with its rivals. While the second…

Through February and March, the number of US ‘job losers’ surged by almost half a million. Constituting the largest two-month increase in Americans who have lost their job since the depth of the pandemic. Unless we see a big drop in…

Several signs have emerged that the “bad news is good news” rally has run its course. Despite deteriorating economic data, the Fed is expected to maintain its “higher for longer” stance, disappointing the market. A rate cut is likely…

Special Report

When complexity collapses, it is a red flag for impending tail-events, heart attacks, and reversals in the markets. We describe how to measure complexity, how to spot the red flag that it has collapsed, and list some investments that…

Bullish equity sentiment may persist in the second quarter on the Fed’s pause, but tight monetary policy, financial instability, elevated recession odds, extreme US polarization and policy uncertainty, and still-high geopolitical…

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2023.