Bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is imminent, yet stocks, bonds, and the oil price are still a long way from fully pricing it.

Special Report

Generative AI is a major technological breakthrough that holds tremendous economic and investment promise and will have sweeping effects on wide swaths of the economy. We are bullish on generative AI as a long-term investment theme.…

The UK economy is more resilient than was feared last year. While this will not help UK stocks, the Footsie’s long term prospects are appealing.

Special Report

The first legislative meeting of Xi Jinping’s third term suggests that Chinese policy is continuous and consistent with the previous ten years, which is negative for long-term productivity.

Special Report

This week’s Special Report, written by Miroslav Aradski, highlights the worrisome deterioration in health trends in the US, which began before the pandemic. Over the long haul, this could weigh on labor supply and productivity, put…

The combination of collapsing energy inflation and cooling wage inflation means that euro area core inflation will slump later this year. We discuss the consequences.

The equity market is back to the 2019 level on an inflation-adjusted basis. However, it is still not cheap as it is not pricing in the possibility of a prolonged and deep earnings recession or a higher interest rates regime. Many…

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2023.

US domestic politics, hypo-globalization, and Great Power Competition favor a revival of US manufacturing capacity. The industrial sector will benefit from the attempt to rebuild US manufacturing. Go long physical infrastructure and…

China’s housing market adjustment will be protracted, causing several years of sub-par growth in the world’s second largest economy. We go through the major investment implications.