Excess job vacancies in the US and UK reflect a labour market that cannot efficiently match unemployed workers with vacant jobs. This is because excess job vacancies reflect the shortage of labour supply in the 50 plus age cohort,…
Airlines have staged an impressive recovery this year, exceeding all expectations. While companies are optimistic, we are cautious. Just as pent-up demand for travel will fade, headwinds from slowing growth and high inflation will…
The messages from the deteriorating fundamental backdrop (tight monetary policy, slowing global growth) and improved credit valuation (elevated 12-month breakeven spreads) are giving conflicting signals on corporate bond strategy. We…
In this report we scrutinize the state of US consumer finances, which are a key driver of the Payment Processing Industry. We expect demand for services to pull back in the early 2023 on the back of still high inflation and tighter…
A client concerned about the slump in asset prices, the stubbornness of inflation, and rising bond yields asks what went wrong, and what happens next? This report is the full transcript of our conversation.
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2022.
On their third quarter earnings calls, the largest banks indicated that their household and business customers remain in surprisingly robust shape. We interpret their observations as supporting our constructive near-term take on the…