Sectors
We explore the eight major themes that will define economic and market trends for Europe next year.
Prefer government bonds over stocks, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Favor North America over other markets. Favor emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China, Turkey, and emerging Europe. Stick with aerospace/defense stocks.
Prefer government bonds over stocks, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Favor North America over other markets. Favor emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China, Turkey, and emerging Europe. Stick with aerospace/defense stocks.
The pandemic gave older Americans and Brits a massive carrot and stick to retire early. The carrot being a surge in wealth, the stick being a risk to health. In other major economies, the carrots and sticks were smaller or non-existent. Hence, the shortage of older workers, and the resulting wage inflation, is a specific US and UK problem. We go through the important economic and investment implications for 2023.
China’s infrastructure investment growth rate will likely slow from its current nominal 14% to 4-6% in 2023H1, on a year-over-year basis. Funding constraints and a shrinking pool of good projects will cap the upside in China’s overall infrastructure fixed-asset investment (FAI) in the next six months.
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2022.
2023 will be another challenging year for the US equity market, characterized by the Fed’s battle with inflation, slowing economic growth, and earnings contraction. The S&P 500 is likely to reach new lows in the first half of the year falling as much as 20-25%, only to rebound sharply in the second half, once all the bad news is priced in.
MacroQuant is overweight bonds, underweight equities, and neutral on cash. Within the equity universe, the model is underweight the US and overweight Japan, the UK, and Australia.
Our best calls of the year were long defensives over cyclicals, short Russia and emerging Europe, long aerospace/defense, short Greater China, and long Latin America. Our worst call of the year was long cyber security stocks.
Web 3.0 plays will boom in the coming decade. Play this through a diversified exposure to today’s main blockchain tokens. But the Web 2.0 oligopolies, like Amazon and Meta, are in big trouble.