Executive Summary Our recommended model bond portfolio outperformed its custom benchmark index by +24bps in Q2/2022, improving the year-to-date outperformance to a solid +72bps. The Q2 outperformance came entirely from the credit side…
Executive Summary Buying a home is now more expensive than renting in many parts of the world. In the US and UK, disappearing homebuyers combined with a flood of home-sellers will weigh on home prices over the next 6-12 months.…
Executive Summary Analysts Have Little Confidence In Their Forecasts In the front section of the sector chart pack, we conduct cross-sectional comparisons. Profitability: Earnings expectations for the cyclical sectors are…
Highlights Chart 1Are Expectations Too Dovish? The dominant market narrative has clearly shifted in the last few days. The primary concern among investors used to be that the Fed had fallen behind the curve on inflation. Now…
Executive Summary There has never been a modern era recession or sharp slowdown in which the oil price did not collapse. In a recession, the massive destruction of oil demand always overwhelms a tight supply. Across the last six…
High food and fertilizer prices could morph into food crises in several developing nations. A Special Report from our Emerging Markets Strategy team reckons that Lebanon, Egypt, Kenya, Peru, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are most at-…
Executive Summary Depressing Housing Market And Service Sector Activity May’s economic data ticked up from extremely depressed levels in April, driven by a normalization in the supply chain and a resumption in…
Executive Summary Small Do Poorly During The Slowdown Phase Small Caps are a more cyclical and high-octane version of Large Caps. Small underperforms Large during the slowdown stage of the business cycle. The yield curve…