Special Report

Executive Summary Autocracy Hurts Productivity  Over the next six-to-18 months, the Xi Jinping administration will “let 100 flowers bloom” – i.e., relax a range of government policies to secure China’…

Executive Summary The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is flawed. This Holy Grail of financial economics assumes that investors are a homogenous bunch with identical investment horizons, when the reality is that investors have a wide…

Special Report

Executive Summary Chinese Infrastructure Investment Growth: A Slowdown Ahead  Despite the authorities’ push, China’s infrastructure1  investment nominal growth2 will likely slow from the current rate of 8% to…

Executive Summary Competing Forces On Global Bond Yields  Bond yields in the developed world have ticked higher recently, due to a renewed increase in oil prices and the spillover effect from more hawkish policy expectations…

Highlights Chart 1Wage Growth Is Cooling  In a speech last week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller presented the theoretical underpinnings for how the Fed plans to achieve a soft landing for the US economy.1 The Fed’s hope…

Executive Summary   Lower Rates Are A Tailwind For Growth Stocks  We remain in the bearish camp. While the market bottom is getting closer, there are still hurdles to overcome such as elevated economic and earnings…

Executive Summary Investors face a dilemma. The faster that inflation comes down, the better it will be for valuations via a stronger rally in the bond price. But if a collapse in inflation requires a sharp deceleration in growth, the…

Special Report

Executive Summary European Spreads Have Cheapened Up More Than US Spreads  Corporate bond spreads in the US and Europe have widened since early April, with European credit taking a bigger hit because of worsening growth and…

Special Report

Highlights The Fed’s hawkish shift over the past six months has caused a sharp increase in US interest rates. In this report we examine the US housing market for signs of an imminent recession, given the housing sector’s…

Chart 1  The S&P Media & Entertainment (M&E) index remains under fire due to its exposure to high beta names like GOOG(L), NFLX, FB, and DIS. These four companies dominate the industry group, comprising nearly 80% of…