Executive Summary Credit Demand Collapsed  Business activity data from April showed a broad-based contraction in China’s economy. Credit growth tumbled as demand collapsed. Bank loan expansion slowed by the most in…

Special Report

Executive Summary Real Estate Is A Poor Inflation Hedge  The real estate sector is experiencing a robust post-pandemic recovery fueled by easy monetary and fiscal policy, with vacancy rates falling, earnings growing, and…

Inflation continues to put pressure on the US consumers. Negative real wage growth (Chart 1) and soaring prices of food and energy are pushing many low and middle-class Americans to shift spending away from discretionary items toward…

Special Report

Executive Summary Indian Voter’s Economic Miseries Are Ascendant  India has a strong strategic geopolitical position but is likely to face turbulence in the short term. This is because India remains expensive, and investors…

Listen to a short summary of this report.         Executive Summary The US Inflation Surprise Index Has Rolled Over  Global equities are nearing a bottom and will rally over the coming months as…

Executive Summary Increase In Chinese Ag Prices Has Been Much More Muted Than Globally  China’s food price inflation accelerated in April. The rising cost of global agricultural goods and domestic COVID-related…

Special Report

Executive Summary UK Stocks Are Close To A Bottom  The UK economic outlook has greatly deteriorated. Weak global growth and punishing energy inflation will cause activity to contract over the next 12 months. Cost-push…

Special Report

Executive Summary China’s Property Market: Signs Of Improvement?   The slump in China’s property market is nearing its cyclical end. The accelerated policy easing in the housing sector should lift the sector out of…

Executive Summary Ingredients For A Policy Mistake  The hawks on the European Central Bank Governing Council have become vocal about a July rate hike. Such a move would be a policy mistake because European growth is weak,…

Special Report

Executive SummaryIn this report, we look at recent macroeconomic developments through the lens of the business cycle, inflation, and Treasury yield regimes to select winning sectors and styles.The US economy is currently in the slowdown…