Chart 1 Both the US and Global PMIs surprised to the downside this week with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI printing 55.4 vs 57.6 expected. The ISM PMI fell by 1.7 points from 57.1 while its employment sub-component fell by…
In lieu of next week’s report, I will be presenting a webcast titled ‘The 5 Big Mispricings In The Markets Right Now, And How To Profit From Them’. I do hope you can join. Executive Summary Just as the railway…
Executive Summary More Chinese Households Intend To Save Than To Invest The Politburo meeting last Friday signaled that China is determined to achieve the 5.5% annual growth target set earlier this year. Policymakers vowed…
Executive Summary Three Problems For European EPS The Chinese economic slowdown in response to COVID lockdowns represents a major headwind for European profits in 2022. Weaker global growth creates another hurdle. The…
Executive Summary German GeoRisk Indicator Russia and Germany have begun cutting off each other’s energy in a major escalation of strategic tensions. The odds of Finland and Sweden joining NATO have shot up. A halt…
Executive Summary Allies Still Have Faith In USD The Biden administration’s use of sanctions has prompted market speculation about the longevity of the dollar. Yet the DXY has hit 100 and could break out, in the…
In our recent publications (see here and here), we have advocated a balanced allocation between cyclicals and defensives, to make portfolios resilient to heightened volatility and investor risk aversion. In order to balance out our own…
Executive Summary Economic Growth in Q2 Will Be Much Softer China’s GDP headline growth in Q1 was better than consensus, but it does not capture the full economic impact of ongoing city lockdowns. Other than…
Executive Summary In this first of a regular series of ‘no holds barred’ conversations with a concerned client we tackle the hot topic of inflation. Month-on-month US core inflation has already peaked, 12-month US core…