Last week marked the beginning of the 2021 Q1 earnings season, with the largest money center banks reporting. We will publish an in-depth analysis of the bank earnings on Monday, April 25, 2022, together with our colleagues from the US…
The US economy is in the midst of an economic growth slowdown, exacerbated by the nascent monetary tightening cycle, a war in Ukraine, and COVID-19 lockdowns in China. To protect our portfolio against the negative economic backdrop, we…
Executive Summary The structural downtrend in Chinese bond yields has a lot further to go, because it is helping to let the air out gently of stratospheric valuations in the real estate sector, and thereby preventing a hard landing for…
Executive Summary To understand the economy and the market we must think of them as non-linear systems which experience sudden phase-shifts. The pandemic introduced phase-shifts in our lives, which led to phase-shifts in our goods…
Today we upgrade the S&P Metals & Mining industry from underweight to neutral: This industry is one of the few beneficiaries of the war in Ukraine, as the military action and global sanctions take offline copious amounts of metals…
Executive Summary Shanghai Is Extending Lockdowns Due To Exponentially Rising COVID Cases The economic impact of China’s struggle with another wave of COVID outbreaks is showing up in March’s PMI and high-…
Highlights Chart 1Reduce Credit Exposure Corporate bond spreads staged a nice rally during the past month. The average index spread for investment grade corporates is only 22 bps above its pre-COVID low and 33 bps above last…
Executive Summary Tighter Financial Conditions May Affect Growth Inflation Outlook: Inflation is becoming entrenched, spreading beyond a few pandemic-related items to “sticky price” categories. A wage-price…