Executive Summary Energy and National Security Will Drive the Market Our 2022 key views are broadly on track. Biden’s shift from domestic to foreign policy is dominating the other views. However,…
Executive Summary China’s Business Cycle Has Not Bottomed Recent data showed a substantial improvement in the economy in the first two months of the year. However, the optimism is not well supported by other industry and…
Executive Summary Expansion In European Defense European yields have significant upside on a structural basis. European government spending will remain generous, which will boost domestic demand; meanwhile, lower global…
Executive Summary Biden’s Low Approval On Foreign Policy The energy shock stemming from President Biden’s foreign policy challenges could get worse, especially if US-Iran talks fail. The energy and inflation…
Today, we are downgrading the S&P restaurants index from overweight to neutral. Currently, the industry faces a trifecta of challenges: Rising input prices, a stronger dollar, and a shift in consumer spending away from discretionary…
Executive Summary Table 1Equity Capitulation Scorecard We have put together a framework to capture the extent to which recent economic and political developments have been priced in by the equity market. It has seven…
Executive Summary Ebbing Stagflation Fear Will Prompt Rerating European inflation will rise further before peaking this summer. Core CPI will reach between 2.8% and 3.2% by year-end before receding. The combination of…
Executive Summary Global Oil Price Pushes Up Inflation Expectations The US cut off of Russian energy exports has limited immediate impact because EU trade with Russia continues. Russia is unlikely to embargo the EU as it…
Executive Summary Winners And Losers Combining Russia and Ukraine: Taken together, Russia and Ukraine account for a small fraction of global trade. However, Russia is a key player in the global energy and metals markets,…