Highlights The Biden administration faces significant risks from outside the US economy – our third “key view” for 2022. The Ukraine conflict brings one external risk to the forefront. These external risks would…
Feature Chart 1Weak Economic Fundamentals Undermine Stock Performance Monetary policy easing has intensified in the past two months. The PBoC reduced one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 bps and five-year by 5 bps following…
Highlights 2022 has had a rough start for equity investors: the S&P 500 is now down 8% from its peak, and NASDAQ is officially in correction territory. The question on everyone’s mind is how long this correction will…
US defense stocks have been on a tear of late (outperforming SPX by 10% since late November), benefiting from both macro and geopolitical trends. From a macro standpoint, the Defense industry has been neglected…
Highlights The bond market assumes that when recent inflation has been high, it will be higher than average for the next ten years. Yet the reality is the exact opposite. High inflation is followed by lower than average inflation.…
Highlights We reformatted and added three sections to our existing trade tables: strategic themes, cyclical asset allocations and tactical investment recommendations. An extensive audit of our current trade book shows that our country…
Dear Client, Next week there will be no regular strategy report. Instead, we will hold our quarterly webcast which will discuss the outlook for the European economy and assets in 2022. I look forward to this interaction. Best…
Underweight In the recent Semiconductors: Aren’t They Fab report, we have downgraded the S&P Semis & Semi Equipment index from overweight to neutral on a cyclical basis (3-6 months) on the back of tightening…
Highlights This week we highlight key charts for US Political Strategy themes and views in the New Year. For H1 2022, we maintain a pro-cyclical, risk-on approach. We favor industrials, energy, infrastructure, and cyclicals. Foreign…