The Evergrade debacle (see Country Focus) underscores the risks facing the global housing market. Ultra-low interest rates are fueling a surge in house prices across the world (see The Numbers). The rapid price increase is making…
The possibility of Chinese real estate developer Evergrande’s collapse threatens the stability of the country’s economy and financial markets through multiple facets. The company accounts for an outsized share of outstanding…
Home prices around the world are continuing their march higher. Canada’s Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index accelerated to 18.4% y/y in August from 17.8%. Similarly, the UK’s Rightmove House Price index advanced 5.…
Highlights Covid-19 has wreaked havoc in the markets, but the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure, and Airline industries have been most affected. These industries constitute what we call the “travel complex” as they share…
Friday’s preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey revealed that American households experienced a minor improvement in confidence in August. The headline index ticked up 0.7 points to 72. The minor increase…
The rally in US Treasurys since March has been positive for tech stocks. The S&P 500 tech sector outperformed the benchmark by 6.58% since then. This strong performance has occurred despite elevated inflation prints and the…
US retail sales for August delivered a positive surprise. The headline number grew 0.7% m/m following the prior month’s downwardly revised decline of 1.8%. Similarly, the retail sales control group expanded 2.5% m/m from a…
Highlights The odds of a stronger recovery in EM oil demand next year are rising, as vaccines using mRNA technology are manufactured locally and become widely available.1 This will reduce local lock-down risks in economies relying on…
Please note that next Friday September 24 at 10am EDT, we will host a webcast featuring a debate between my colleague Peter Berezin and me. The topic of debate is whether investors should overweight EM in a global portfolio. Please join…
Following this week’s CPI release, we update our Corporate Pricing Power Indicator (CPPI). As a reminder, we calculate industry group pricing power from the relevant CPI, PPI, PCE and commodity prices growth rates for each of the 60…