Highlights Since June, 6 structured recommendations achieved their profit targets: short building and construction (XLB) versus healthcare (XLV); long USD/CAD; long USD/HUF; long Nike versus L’Oréal; short corn versus…
Aluminum prices recently accelerated sharply following several months of relative inactivity. The recent rally was triggered by fears of a disruption in bauxite supplies - the primary source of aluminum - following a military…
BCA Research's China Investment Strategy service recommends a new trade: long Chinese industrial stocks/short A-shares. Chinese onshore stocks in the infrastructure, materials, and industrial sectors recently advanced…
Last week’s PPI release came in strong, beating expectations and posting its eighth consecutive print of a higher-than-forecasted YoY increase. The release confirms that supply chains remain clogged and that businesses…
Highlights Investors are caught in the crosscurrents of inconsistent economic data and contradictory trends, which obscure the answer to the most important questions of the day: What will be the direction and rate of change of yields?…
Highlights The equity risk premium has turned negative for the first time since 2002. It follows that any significant rise in bond yields will cause risk-asset prices to collapse, quickly flipping any incipient inflationary shock into…
Feature Chart 1Chinese Offshore Stocks Tumbled Amid Regulatory Crackdowns Relative to the global equity index, onshore and offshore Chinese stocks have fallen by 18% and 32%, respectively, since their peaks in mid-February (…
Highlights Economic policy uncertainty is rising in the US and will generate volatility this fall. But by the end of the year the result should be more fiscal reflation. Biden’s approval rating is now “underwater”…
Highlights The US government issued its first-ever water-shortage declaration for the Colorado River basin in August, due to historically low water levels at the major reservoirs fed by the river (Chart of the Week). The drought…