Our Counterpoint Strategy team believes the equity bull market’s biggest risk is the reversal of the divergence between Japanese and US real yields. Japan’s real policy interest rate differential versus the US…
Dear client, We are launching a new type of Daily Insight titled “Cross-Asset Focus”, where we delve into the dynamics between multiple asset classes, tying them to the current macro and market regimes. The inaugural entry…
Despite elevated mortgage rates, UK home prices remain resilient. Average new seller asking prices were roughly flat in October, even as evidence of selling pressures are emerging. According to Rightmove, total home…
The recent slump in globally- and tech-sensitive East Asian trade shows no respite, with advanced October Korean exports and September Taiwanese export orders data disappointing. Korean exports for the first 20 days of October…
Our US Equity Strategy colleagues expect Q3 earnings to be strong enough to fuel the soft-landing narrative. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth to be 4.0% year-over-year, with sales growth of 4.0% too. Yet, with…
US housing starts and building permits eased below expectations in September. Permits, a proxy for future construction, dropped 2.9% after rising 4.6% in August. New construction fell 0.5% after rising 7.8% a month prior. These…
Chinese activity data met expectations, with Q3 GDP printing at 4.6% year-on-year, decelerating from 4.7% in Q2 but below the 5% 2024 growth target. Other metrics such as industrial production and retail sales beat expectations…
The war in Ukraine has ended in late 2022… for markets at least. This is the conclusion from our GeoMacro team’s latest report, which aims to dispel five crucial myths surrounding the conflict. The myths are the…
US retail sales beat expectations in September, rising 0.4% from August when growth was essentially flat. The control group also beat expectations at 0.7% month-on-month, accelerating from 0.3%. Growth was however somehow weak on…
Third-quarter earnings season has started last week for banks, with most major banks reporting earnings above expectations so far. Our US Investment strategists routinely analyze the big banks' earnings calls to gauge…