Highlights The Seventh National Population Census highlights the seriousness of China’s demographic deterioration; apart from a shrinking working-age population, the nation’s fertility and birth rates have dropped…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The rising shadow fed funds rate and related flattening of the yield curve, eerie similarities with the 2009/10 episode, overbought technicals, and extended sector breadth, all signal that financials are…
The SPX has been striving to find direction over the past couple of weeks in the seasonally weak month of May, as “transitory inflation” may actually morph into more semi-permanent inflation. The Fed’s…
Highlights Global oil markets will remain balanced this year with OPEC 2.0's production-management strategy geared toward maintaining the level of supply just below demand. This will keep inventories on a downward trajectory,…
Neutral Home improvement retailers (HIR) were among the lucky ones that were allowed to keep their doors open during the pandemic. As a result, these big box retailers benefitted from the lockdown as people used their…
Highlights The reason to own stocks is not profit growth. The combination of unspectacular sales growth and down-trending profit margins means that global profit growth will be lacklustre, at best. The reason to own stocks is that the…
Underweight High-Conviction While our underweight homebuilders call has been offside of late, we are sticking with it given the recent turn in some crucial data series. Interest and mortgage rates are a key determinant for…
Chart 1Chart 1 Not only did the pandemic claim millions of human lives and cause irreparable suffering, but it also permanently damaged a number of macro series and indicators, some of which we highlight in today’s Sector…