Overweight We have been overweight the niche (0.33% of the S&P 500) airlines sector going into the pandemic, and while it has been slow to recover, there is little doubt that soon airline stocks will reclaim their pre-…
We nearly fully captured the economic reopening theme through our long “Back-To-Work”/short “COIVD-19 Winners” baskets pair trade. As a brief summary, we first initiated this trade in the September 8th…
Highlights Our 80% odds that Biden will pass the $2.3 trillion American Jobs Plan stem from public opinion as well as Democratic control of Congress. Voters favor both higher taxes on corporations and higher infrastructure spending,…
Feature The selloff in Chinese stocks since mid-February reflects a rollover in earnings growth and multiples. Lofty valuations in Chinese equities driven by last year’s massive stimulus means that stock prices are vulnerable to any…
Last week we highlighted BCA’s Risk Appetite Index (RAI) that has catapulted to uncharted territory. While such euphoria has not historically spelled cyclical or structural SPX trouble, it does warrant some near-term…
Highlights The Biden Administration's $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan rolled out yesterday will, at the margin, boost global demand for energy and base metals more than expected later this year and next. Global GDP growth…
Highlights President Biden’s $2.4 trillion “American Jobs Plan” is a major US public investment that will dispel any endogenous deflationary tail risk from the US economy this cycle, increase inflation expectations…
We recently came across an old BCA indicator – the Risk Appetite Index (RAI) – and after dusting it off we tweaked it a bit and are updating it today for the first time since US Equity Strategy last showed it in…
The BCA Research Global Asset Allocation (GAA) Forum will take place online on May 18th. We have put together a great lineup of speakers to discuss issues of importance to CIOs and asset allocators. These include the latest thinking…
In the latest Special Report we attempted to answer the question of whether this coming rebound in CPI is a paradigm shift that will push the US into a new era of consistently high (i.e. above 3%/annum) core CPI inflation, or is it a…