Highlights Extremely accommodative fiscal policy and a rapid pace of vaccination puts the US on track to close its output gap by the end of the year. The situation is different in Europe, and the euro area economy will likely continue…
Neutral In light of the likely slowdown in Chinese data, last week we downgraded the S&P machinery index from overweight to neutral. This sub-surface industrials sector move also comes on the heels of our previous upgrade…
Optimistic sell-side analysts’ forward earnings forecasts are rebalancing the market’s return away from multiple expansion and toward an earnings-led explanation. But, with expectations still sitting at extremes, even a minor…
Highlights Fiscal stimulus is no longer a free lunch. US mortgage applications are down by 20 percent since the start of February. With rising bond yields now starting to choke private sector borrowing, bond yields are nearing an…
The mighty USA remains the world’s growth locomotive that tugs the global economy higher. In fact, in a recent Strategy Report we highlighted how US growth expectations outpace the EMU (see Chart 17 here) by a hefty…
Highlights Biden has enough political capital to pass at least one more major piece of legislation. The next major bill will increase the budget deficit further, adding additional stimulus, though it will consist of structural reforms…
Last December in our “2021 High-Conviction Calls” Strategy Report we instituted a long VIX futures trade (for a second time) as a hedge to our cyclical exposure, and earlier this year we crystallized handsome gains…
Today marks the one year anniversary of last year’s SPX lows and we are compelled to reprint the “20 Reasons To Buy Equities” part of our report that Monday “as is” that was titled “The Darkest Hour Is…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy China’s slowdown, a grinding higher US dollar, extremely overbought technicals and historically pricey valuations, all signal that the time is ripe to book profits and downgrade machinery to neutral…