Highlights Spread Product: Any near-term correction in risk assets is likely to be fleeting. Investors should take the opportunity to increase credit exposure and maintain overweight spread product allocations on a 6-12 month horizon…

Highlights U.S. equity valuations are historically high, based on a variety of metrics. However, relative to competing assets and global equity peers, U.S. stock valuations are not an extreme. For U.S.-based investors, our upbeat…

Highlights Chart 1Keep A Close Eye On Financial Conditions  The market's rate hike expectations moved sharply higher during the past two weeks as a string of Fed speeches, including one by Chair Yellen, all but confirmed a March…

Special Report

Feature Recently we have received a number of client questions about the Fed's balance sheet. When will the Fed start to shrink its balance sheet (if at all)? If the Fed does decide to shrink its balance sheet, how long will…

Highlights Rate Volatility: Forecast disagreement about GDP growth and T-bill rates will increase over the course of the year. This, alongside elevated policy uncertainty, will translate into higher interest rate volatility. Treasury…

Highlights Chart 1Strong Growth & An Easy Fed  More than a month has passed since the Fed's latest rate hike and, at least so far, the economy is displaying no ill effects. While the economic data continue to surprise…

Highlights Duration: In the absence of a major economic shock we will reinitiate a below-benchmark duration recommendation once the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index displays some mean reversion and positioning indicators are at…

Highlights Chart 1Upside Risks & Uncertainty  The evidence of economic acceleration continues to pile up and we maintain our view that bond yields will be higher than current forwards by the end of 2017. In the near-term,…

Highlights Chart 1More Upside From Inflation  We moved to below benchmark duration on July 19, when the 10-year Treasury yield was 1.56%. As of last Friday's close, the 10-year Treasury yield was 2.4% and above the fair value…

Highlights Duration: We continue to advocate a below benchmark duration stance, but the bond bear market is likely to take a pause once market rate expectations have fully converged with the Fed's forecasts. TIPS: The Fed will be…