Some tentative signs of life in the global manufacturing data suggest that Treasury yields have some room to move higher in the near term.
The current uptrend in Treasury yields will be cut short once the dollar appreciates in response to an increasingly hawkish Fed. Maintain benchmark duration and add a long 2/10 barbell, short 5yr bullet trade to profit from Fed…
Fed policymakers will soon shift their focus toward the strong employment and inflation data and stress that further rate hikes this year are likely. This will stem the rally in risk assets and cap the upside in long-dated yields.
A near-term rally in risk assets now appears very likely. But we expect it to be cut short when the Fed eventually reacts to easier financial conditions by returning to a more hawkish policy stance. Investors should maintain a…
Spread product performance has been foreshadowing changes in market rate hike expectations since early last year, and the recent bout of weakness means it is probably time for the Fed to temper its hawkishness.