Highlights Chart 1Inflation Indicators Hook Up There’s no doubt that inflationary pressures are building in the US economy. The latest piece of evidence is January’s ISM Manufacturing PMI which saw the Prices Paid…
Highlights Chart 12020 Returns After a tumultuous start to the year, corporate bonds rallied in 2020 H2, managing to eke out small annual gains versus Treasuries. Specifically, investment grade corporates outperformed…
Highlights Chart 1Bond Yields & The CRB/Gold Ratio In our last report of November, we noted that the rising COVID case count was likely to lead to a challenging few months for the US economy, but we also questioned…
Highlights Chart 1Bond Yields Have Upside In A Blue Sweep Today’s US election has important implications for the near-term path of bond yields. In particular, a “blue sweep” outcome where the Democrats win…
Highlights Chart 1Spending Held Up In August The bulk of the CARES act’s income support provisions expired at the end of July and Congress has still not reached consensus on a follow-up package. Unsurprisingly,…
Highlights Chart 1Permanent Job Losses Still Rising The biggest event in bond markets last month was the Fed’s shift toward a regime of average inflation targeting. Treasuries sold off in the days following the…
Highlights Global Bond Yields: The growing divide between falling negative real bond yields and rising inflation expectations in the US and other major developed economies may be a sign of investors pricing in slower long-run potential…
Highlights Chart 1How Much Lower For Real Yields? Treasury yields moved lower last month even as the overall bond market priced-in a more reflationary economic environment. Spread product outperformed Treasuries and…