Stay defensive at least until the US midterm election is over. Gridlock is disinflationary in 2023 and hence marginally positive for US equities. But any relief rally will be short-lived as recession risks are very high.
Executive Summary Biden Taps China-Bashing Consensus House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan reflects one of our emerging views in 2022: the Biden administration’s willingness to take foreign policy risks…
Dear Client, On Monday August 8, I will be sending you an abbreviated version of our monthly Chart Pack. Our regular publication will resume on August 15. Kind regards, Irene Tunkel Executive Summary The US Is Vulnerable: Only…
Underweight In the recent Semiconductors: Aren’t They Fab report, we have downgraded the S&P Semis & Semi Equipment index from overweight to neutral on a cyclical basis (3-6 months) on the back of tightening…
Highlights Industry Deep-dive Report: The Semiconductor and Semiconductor Equipment Industry (“Semis”) has had a fantastic run over the past 12 months. We have been overweight it since June and the trade is ahead of the…
Highlights Supply-side pressures should abate over the coming months as semiconductor availability improves, transportation bottlenecks ease, energy prices recede, and more workers enter the labor force. The respite from inflation…
Highlights The US government issued its first-ever water-shortage declaration for the Colorado River basin in August, due to historically low water levels at the major reservoirs fed by the river (Chart of the Week). The drought…
Overweight Today we are upgrading the Semiconductor industry group to an overweight. Semis received a lot of bad press this year as chip shortages became a major production bottleneck for a range of industries from autos to…