US headline CPI eased from 2.9% y/y to 2.5% in August in line with consensus predictions. However, core CPI unexpectedly accelerated from 0.2% m/m to 0.3%. Aside from airfares -- a highly volatile series which is likely to…
The Swedish economy’s cyclicality and sensitivity to global trade make it a reliable bellwether for global growth. Sweden is facing significant domestic weakness. Employment growth declined by 0.14% y/y in July and…
The ISM services PMI remained mostly stable in August, extending a second consecutive month of modest expansion. The headline index ticked 0.1 point higher to 51.5. However, although new orders continued to expand, new export…
Preliminary estimates suggest that with the exception of the UK (see Country Focus), manufacturing activity remains lackluster in DM economies. Manufacturing declined at a slower pace in Japan and Australia but the contractions…
The ISM services PMI surprised positively in July. The headline index expanded 2.6 ppts to 51.4, reversing May’s fastest pace of contraction in four years. Notably, the business activity subcomponent increased 4.9 ppts…
The ISM Services PMI largely disappointed in June. The headline index plunged from 53.8 to 48.8, its fastest pace of contraction since May 2020, far below expectations of 52.7. This series can be noisy and the June update…
In Section I, we examine some concerning signs of US economic weakness that emerged in June. We also discuss portfolio positioning in the face of falling interest rates and cross-check our recommended US equity overweight in the face…
According to the results of the latest German IFO survey, overall sentiment deteriorated slightly in June. The IFO Business Climate index declined from 89.3 in May to 88.6 in June, disappointing expectations of a modest…
Is the BoE making a mistake moving toward rate cuts before the end of the summer? What would such a move mean for UK asset prices?