Our strategic and tactical trades were up an average 24.6% in 2016Q2, led by strategic energy recommendations. Going forward, we continue to favor energy exposure over base and precious metals, ags and softs.

Global oil demand will continue to surprise to the upside over the balance of the year - growing at a rate of 1.6 MMb/d - following an unexpected surge over the first five months of 2016.

Increasing uncertainty over the Brexit vote will keep the Fed from raising its overnight policy rate at this week's FOMC meeting, but it may not keep the USD from rallying in the event of a decisive win for Brexit advocates on June…

China's 4.7 trillion RMB (~ $720 billion) fiscal stimulus program will be more bullish for base metals, particularly copper, than we initially surmised.

While the Fed's recent forward guidance leading markets to increase the odds of a policy-rate hike earlier than previously expected will restrain the recovery in crude oil prices, fundamentals will dominate price formation now that…

Against a backdrop of continuing supply destruction, particularly in the U.S., and a pick-up in crude demand, markets will remain in balance this quarter and go into a deficit in 2016H2.

Gold will remain well bid over the short term. The surge in demand that pushed prices up by 20% ytd (Chart of the Week) will continue to dominate supply growth.

We focus on 3 stress-points in the economy and markets which segue to several high conviction investment recommendations.

The pace of U.S. oil supply destruction accelerated at the end of April, as yoy losses increased to 470 thousand barrels per day (Mb/d) for the week ended April 29.

China's reflation policies have succeeded in reviving iron ore and steel prices, which are up 45.6% and 52.6% from their January lows, along with the profitability of domestic steelmakers.