The lumber market has been booming. After a brief setback in March, prices are on the rise again and have recently surged past the $1500/board feet mark. This performance is in line with the recent 20bps decline in 30-year…
Highlights US natural gas prices will remain well supported over the April-October injection season, as the global economic expansion gains traction, particularly in Europe, which also is refilling depleted storage levels. China's…
Highlights Rising CO2 emissions on the back of stronger global energy growth this year will keep energy markets focused on expanding ESG risks in the buildout of renewable generation via metals mining (Chart of the Week). …
Commodities were a bright spot on Tuesday, despite uninspiring performances by other risk assets. Our Commodity & Energy strategists have been arguing that idiosyncratic forces are buoying industrial commodities: a capex…
Highlights Stronger global growth in the wake of continued and expected fiscal and monetary stimulus, and progress against COVID-19 are boosting oil demand assumptions by the major data suppliers for this year. We lifted our…
The lumber rally this year has been spectacular. We have been positive on this asset since February and sadly, cut our exposure too early relative to other commodities, five weeks ago. Nonetheless, we cannot ignore what the surge…
Highlights Exogenous risks will remain more of a threat to grain prices than out-of-whack fundamentals, which are closer to balance than not, as the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) indicate. COVID-…
Lumber prices have surged recently, boosted by record-low mortgage rates, which have spurred a rise in mortgage applications for purchases to a post-GFC high. Moreover, homebuyers traffic has been quickly recovering, which fueled…
Highlights Recommended Allocation The coronavirus pandemic is not over. Enormous fiscal and monetary stimulus will soften the blow to the global economy, but there remain significant risks to growth over the next 12 months…
On February 28, we prematurely argued that lumber was attractive because it was less exposed to the global industrial cycle and would benefit from lower interest rates. While lumber did outperform oil, it underperformed copper…