The global semiconductor industry has been experiencing a record amount of IPOs and M&A deals in recent months. A flurry of IPOs and M&As in any industry often serves as a sign of a top in share prices (Chart 1). Chat 1Will…
Highlights US-China relations in 2020 consist of a gentleman’s agreement to keep the Phase One trade deal in place and aggressive maneuvering in every other policy area. Stimulus is unlikely to be curtailed in the US or China…
The Shanghai Container Freight Index reached its highest level in 6 years. Some of the strength in China’s container trade can be assigned to idiosyncratic factors. For example, household goods demand in the US and EU is…
Highlights The strength in global semiconductor sales in recent months has been due to one-off factors stemming from pandemic-related lockdowns. As the one-off demand surge subsides, global semiconductor sales will decline modestly…
Selling USD/KRW is an attractive trade. The KRW is cheap. USD/KRW trades 10% above it purchasing-power-parity equilibrium. Since the GFC, a 10% premium has created a reliable entry point to sell USD/KRW. This time will not…
South Korea's exports for the first 20 days of July fell by -12.8% year-on-year, representing a deterioration compared to last month's -7.5% contraction. On the positive side, the contraction in exports per working day is…
BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service is moving China from neutral to overweight and downgrading Korea from overweight to neutral relative to the EM equity benchmark. Regarding Korean equities, the risks are as…
Highlights When retail investors invest aggressively and central banks buy assets en masse, economic fundamentals take the back seat and momentum becomes king. Global risk assets are at a fork in the road: either they will relapse…
Chart I-15DRAM And Korean Tech Stocks We are moving China from neutral to overweight and downgrading Korea from overweight to neutral relative to the EM equity benchmark. Regarding Korean equities, the risks are as follows…
Feature Analysis on Korea & South Africa are available on pages 6 and 10, respectively. Mexico: Balancing Pros And Cons We have been overweight Mexican sovereign credit and local currency bonds as well as equities relative to the…