Steel

The powerful short covering bounce in the S&P steel index is starting to fizzle. The latest upleg had been driven by a surge in Chinese domestic steel prices. That, combined with news that the country plans to reduce steel capacity in the coming three to five years, was enough to send shorts scrambling for cover. However, it will take time for the global steel market to rebalance. In the short run, the jump in Chinese steel prices has already encouraged domestic producers to re-ramp steel production (second panel). Persistent sluggishness in indicators of China's domestic consumption mean that steel inventories are likely to build as production picks up anew, which will put upward pressure on exports to the rest of the world. Fading construction growth and tightening lending standards in many developed countries suggest that increased steel supply from China will have a negative impact on steel prices. We reiterate our recent downgrade back to underweight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S15STEL - NUE, STLD, RS, X, CMC, ATI, WOR, CRS, AKS, TMST, HAYN, SXC, ZEUS. End Of The Steel Rally? End Of The Steel Rally?

The heavily-shorted S&P steel index has enjoyed some relief of late, as short sellers were given an excuse to cover when China announced it would attempt to shut roughly 10% of its productive capacity in the next few years. While that is a necessary development to eventually rebalance markets, there are no quick fixes. Chinese steel production has already been drifting lower for some time, but exports continue to trend higher. The country has accumulated massive inventories as a consequence of previous overproduction and sinking domestic demand growth. The sharp downturn in infrastructure investment (shown inverted) is likely to sustain upward export pressure, thereby keeping global markets oversupplied. Without a rebound in resource end markets, steelmakers must rely on other sources of demand growth such as global construction. However, even these outlets are also losing steam. The chart shows that BCA's proxy for global commercial REIT supply is contracting at a steep rate, consistent with weak steel uptake. The implication is chronic downward pressure on steel utilization rates, and by extension, pricing power and profits. We recommend selling into strength and reducing positions back to underweight. Please see yesterday's Weekly Report for more details. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: NUE, STLD, RS, X, CMC, ATI, CRS, WOR, AKS, HAYN, SXC, TMST, ZEUS. bca.uses_in_2016_03_15_003_c1 bca.uses_in_2016_03_15_003_c1

Confirming indicators still do not validate the oversold rally. Fade the materials sector bounce, by selling steel down to underweight.

A stunning 9.9 million-barrel build in U.S. oil inventories this week failed to arrest the upward climb in prices.