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Sweden

Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.

Our DM strategists recommend regional bond overweights in the UK, Canada, and Sweden, and express policy divergence through tactical FX trades: long USD, underweight GBP and SEK, and long JPY vs. EUR. Most G10 central banks are nearing neutral, but their next…

Monetary policy divergences are re-emerging. We rely on BCA’s Central Bank Monitor to assess the current policy stance of major central banks, and highlight the tactical opportunities across bond markets and currencies. 

The Riksbank surprised with a 25 bps cut to 1.75%, signaling no further easing for now but keeping the door open to additional cuts as growth weakens. The move came despite recent inflation prints above the central bank’s forecasts. Leading indicators,…
The Riksbank held at 2.0% as core inflation remains above target, though easing pressures are building. July headline inflation had slightly cooled, but core remains above both the bank’s forecast and the 1-3% target band. Inflation drivers point to…
Sweden’s July inflation print came in cooler than expected, but core remains too high for an imminent Riksbank cut. CPI rose 0.8% y/y, while CPIF climbed to 3.0% and core CPIF decelerated to 3.1%, still above the Riksbank’s 2.8% July forecast and outside…

In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.

Stronger-than-expected June inflation will likely keep the Riksbank on hold in August, despite soft underlying trends. Headline inflation accelerated more than expected to 0.5% m/m (0.8% y/y), while CPI ex-housing rose to 2.9% y/y and core inflation to 3.3%…

In this Insight, we look at the best trade idea from the recent rate cut by the Riksbank. 

Sweden’s economic fragility and disinflation support further easing, reinforcing our long SEK rates and NOK/SEK trades. The Riksbank cut rates by 25 bps to 2.0% and projected an additional cut, consistent with prior OIS pricing. Forecasts for both headline…