Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Chart 1The Dollar Has Broken Below The First Line Of Support The softer CPI print in the US boosted growth plays and pushed the DXY index below…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The Dollar Rises During Recessions At 106.5, the dollar DXY index is certainly pricing in a recession deeper than during the Covid-19 crisis.…
Executive Summary The Dollar And Volatility The dollar continues to be bid, as volatility rises. The MOVE volatility index is making fresh cycle highs and has pushed the DXY index above our stop level of 107 (Feature Chart…
Executive Summary Structural Tailwinds For The Franc Volatility in FX markets is likely to remain elevated, as witnessed by the reaction of a full circle of central bank meetings this week.Policy convergence remains a good bet for…
Executive Summary Is Relative Inflation Peaking In The US? The dollar has likely peaked in the near term. An unwinding of speculative bets, based on structurally higher inflation in the US, is the key driver (Feature Chart…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The Dollar Likes Volatility Uncertainty about Fed policy has supercharged volatility in bond markets, and correspondingly, USD demand (Feature…
Executive Summary The Dollar Has Broken Above Overhead Resistance Most central banks continue to dial up their hawkish rhetoric, led by the Fed. This is putting upward pressure on the dollar (Feature Chart). The big…
Executive Summary To understand the economy and the market we must think of them as non-linear systems which experience sudden phase-shifts. The pandemic introduced phase-shifts in our lives, which led to phase-shifts in our goods…
Executive Summary The Dollar And The Yield Curve The dollar has tended to decline 3-to-6 months after the Fed starts hiking interest rates. This has been true since the mid-1990s. Beyond that timeframe, the path of the…
Executive Summary Petrocurrencies Have Lagged Terms Of Trade Petrocurrencies have lagged the surge in crude prices. This has been specific to the currency space since energy stocks have been in an epic bull market.Both cyclical and…