In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions:…
Swiss National Bank will have to resort to negative interest rates and FX intervention before year-end. Swiss inflation fell to 0% year-over-year in April, or the lower end of the SNB’s 0%-2% target range, and the continued…
The easing bias remains, but not all central banks are equal. This Central Bank Monitor update reveals who is ready to cut more and who is still pretending not to.
Tariff-driven inflation is diverging across economies, with the US facing mounting pressures while disinflation persists elsewhere. In theory, US tariffs should strengthen the dollar and weaken targeted currencies. In practice, the…
This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.
While inflation concerns prevail in the US, Swiss inflation hit its lowest level in almost four years. Headline CPI contracted 0.1% m/m in January, leaving the annual inflation rate at 0.4%, near the bottom of the Swiss National Bank…
This week, we update our Central Bank Monitors (CBMs), that help us calibrate how monetary policy should be adjusted in developed-market economies. Our conclusion is that while overall, easier monetary settings are required, there a…
The Swiss KOF Barometer is a composite leading indicator of the Swiss economy. It surprised to the upside in September coming in at 105.5 against expectations of 101.0. The August reading was also significantly revised higher,…
In a widely expected move, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its policy rate for a third consecutive meeting on Thursday, from 1.25% to 1.00%. The move marked President Thomas Jordan’s final policy decision and his incoming…