The world is focused entirely on the trade war between the US and… well everyone. This is fair given that there has been no greater market catalyst than Liberation Day since the pandemic. However, we continue to stress that the BIG…

President Trump imposed tariffs on the world in his first 100 days, as we expected. Tariffs may have catalyzed a recession in the US, given the weakness in consumer sentiment and demand. Trump will soon backpedal and grant exemptions…

Equities will find a bottom when the full effects of tariffs on earnings and economic growth are priced in. The bottom of the market appears a long way away, and the S&P 500 may end up as low as 4,300, barring any reversals in…

This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.

The March employment report showed strong job growth, but the labor market remains in a fragile state and the demand shock from tariffs could be the catalyst that tips it over the edge into recession. 

On the one hand, US tariffs are much more deflationary for the rest of the world than for the US, so interest rate differentials might move in favor of the US dollar in the near term. On the other hand, portfolio outflows from the US…

Tariffs will make a difficult job almost impossible. Hitting and sustaining a precise 2 percent inflation target is more about luck than judgement. It requires both the starting point for inflation expectations and any inflation/…

Trump's Tariff D-Day brings a negative surprise to financial markets already anxious over a declining US cyclical economy. Investors should sell risky assets, increase safe havens, and overweight US assets in the near term.