Trump’s ceasefire talks are positive for Germany – and so was the German election result. But Trump’s tariffs will hit Germany soon. Investors should use near-term volatility to increase exposure to Germany.
Germany’s election delivered no major surprises but raised questions about whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government will relax the “debt brake,” which caps budget deficits at 0.35% of GDP. The new coalition, comprising the…
Our GeoMacro and Global Investment strategists crunched the numbers to determine what the world owes the US for its security commitments. The US administration views trade deficits and defense commitments as interconnected…
US growth has slowed in recent weeks. This can be seen in the weaker data on retail sales, consumer confidence, services PMIs, and a swath of housing releases (notably starts, existing home sales, homebuilder confidence, and stock…
This week’s report discusses the questions we were asked most frequently when we met with investors in the Midwest two weeks ago. We reiterate our pessimistic fundamental take and our neutral asset allocation recommendations.
The February Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index beat expectations, but retreated to 18.1 from last month’s lofty 44.3 reading. All activity subcomponents pulled back, except for delivery times. The Philly Fed index is volatile…
Our Emerging Markets and Commodities strategists explored the dislocations in metals markets as tariffs fears led to physical flows to the US and price spikes. US import tariffs on gold, silver, platinum, and copper are…
The January US Producer Price Index came in slightly hotter than estimates, but decelerated to 0.4% m/m (3.5% y/y) from an upwardly-revised 0.5% in December. Core PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade services, was also stronger…
In his latest Thoughts Of The Day, Peter Berezin discusses the different moving parts of the global economy today and the potential impact of Trump's policies.