Europe is about to become President Trump’s next target. The good news: a US/EU trade war will be short as common ground to achieve a deal exists. The bad news: European assets remain at the mercy of heightened uncertainty. How…
Some thoughts on this morning's employment data and Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent attempts to talk down the 10-year Treasury yield.
This week, our three screeners focus on providing equity insights based on the impact of tariffs, and trade policy uncertainty in general, helping clients identify stocks exposed to these shocks.
All the growth in the US labour supply since mid-2023 has come from immigration. This means if net immigration comes to a grinding halt, as Trump wants, it will hurt economic growth as well as keep the labour market supply-…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025.
This Insight is a post mortem on Canadian assets, after the threat of tariff wars.
We revisit our view on the “fiscal gravy train” as well as President Trump’s negotiating style. We re-print parts of our March 2024 net assessment, particularly for the benefit of our new clients who have joined us at BCA Research.…
We expect market volatility to remain elevated due to uncertain economic, monetary, and trade policies. Barbell is the best portfolio strategy at this time. We recommend boosting defensive allocations to lower portfolio beta. …
The 10% tariff hike announced on Saturday will likely serve as the opening salvo in a broader wave of protectionist measures. In this report, we assess the increase in US import tariffs on China. While the direct impact on China’s…
Trump’s Tariff ObsessionDonald Trump was elected on his promise to reduce inflation, curb illegal immigration, and expunge woke ideology. Tariffs were never very high on the agenda for most voters. Nevertheless, Trump has been…