The US-China tariff deal confirms one thing: markets are still priced for perfection, with little upside even if a recession is dodged. The London negotiations yielded a partial agreement: The US will reduce tariffs, and China will…
While we anticipate higher inflation in June, it looks increasingly likely that the price impact from tariffs will be less aggressive and long-lasting than many feared.
Bond market volatility will spike again in the near term. The Fed is committed to an easing cycle yet the Trump administration’s signature fiscal policy action will stimulate the economy. Tariffs are supposed to keep the budget…
The US economy has held up better so far this year than we had expected. For the time being, investors should remain modestly underweight equities. A more aggressive underweight would be justified only once the “whites of the…
Our PMA strategists published Part 2 of their Capital Market Assumptions update, focusing on Direct Lending. They project gross annualized returns of 7.7% unlevered and 10.7% levered for Global Middle Market Direct Lending, and 6.5%…
This month, we focus on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Our assessment in the Alpha report is that there won’t be any remaining alpha to harvest by shorting duration. The team that coined the “Human Steepener” moniker for…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2025.
Ongoing military tensions between Ukraine and Rusia and renewed US-EU trade friction reinforce tactical opportunities to add European exposure on dips. Ukraine’s drone strike on Russian air assets and the limited outcome of the…
After considering some of the most common bullish arguments, we stand by our recession view and reiterate our defensive asset allocation recommendations.
Private Credit return expectations edge lower. Middle Market Direct Lending remains attractive, rivaling Middle Market Buyouts.