In Section I, Doug warns that US trade policy may produce a considerably worse outcome than investors currently expect. The administration’s apparent 10% tariff baseline is likely to be negative for the US economy and particularly…
President Trump’s trade truces gave a respite to global markets, but a bigger risk lurks around the corner. Unsustainable public debt dynamics in the US demand higher bond yields, which can push the economy into trouble. The…
President Trump faces new restrictions on his trade powers coming from the US judicial branch, but they will not prevent him from continuing to restrict trade and investment with China. Rather, they will establish some curbs against…
First quarter US earnings have outperformed expectations. A deteriorating economy will eventually weigh on profits, but for now, the worst-case scenario is averted. Our US Equity strategists reviewed the recent earnings season.A…
In this report, we take stock of the Q1 2025 earnings season. Corporate commentary and forward guidance provide valuable insights into the state of the economy, tariff mitigation strategies, and consumer spending.
Last Friday, President Trump announced new 50% tariffs on imported goods from the European Union (EU), effective June 1st, and threatened US company Apple with 25% tariffs unless it made iPhones in the US. Global stock markets…
Return expectations have changed for Buyouts, but not equally for Large+ and Middle Market deals. While tariffs are dramatically reducing investor expectations, our return expectations are modestly increasing—with Large+ leading. In…
Risk assets rallied hard following the Great Geneva De-escalation, but we are not enamored of risk assets’ risk-reward profile. Forward-looking survey data remain awful on balance and we continue to recommend a defensive asset…