Tariff front-running behavior makes the April hard economic data difficult to interpret, but we take the strong reading from Food Services spending as a signal that the US consumer has not yet buckled.

Markets are pricing out the worst trade policy fears, and while tariffs will still dent earnings, the impact looks smaller than initially feared. With sector rotation gaining traction and oversold names rebounding, we are adjusting…

A weakening economy will apply downward pressure to Treasury yields, but the Trump term premium will keep long-dated yields higher than they would otherwise be. This makes Treasury curve steepeners the most attractive trade in US…

Special Report

Short-term pain from Trump-related concessions, fiscal tightening amid a US and Mexican slowdown, and rising labor slack will weigh further on Mexican assets. But long-run, policy direction will capitalize on the nearshoring trend…

Special Report

It may take several months for the tariff shock and policy uncertainty to filter through the real economy, but survey-based data are already sending a warning. Equities have priced in a lot of good news, and investors are too…

The Fed held rates steady this afternoon, and the timing of its next move will be dictated by whether the tariff shock to inflation is transitory or more long lasting.

Negotiations on trade, Iran, and Ukraine will prove critical this month. Markets will remain volatile because positive data surprises enable the White House to press its hawkish tariff hikes, while negative surprises force the White…

In the long run, Mexico will emerge as one of the biggest winners of US tariffs as the US diversifies supply chains away from China. In the medium term, however, a US growth slowdown and tariffs will push Mexico into recession. In EM…