While the United States and China may aim for full decoupling, all they can afford now is some form of trade skirmishes. Increasing economic pressure will eventually force both Washington and Beijing to pursue more proactive…

Special Report

Europe’s near-term outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, even after the tariff reprieve. Our latest update breaks down why the risks to growth, profits, and financial conditions are still skewed to the downside — with Sweden…

Special Report

This week, we look at the sustainability of the HKD peg as the next whale to move markets, given what is happening to tariffs. After careful analysis, our bias is that it is here to stay. With the DXY dipping below 100, we are likely…

The combination of dollar weakness and rising US yields suggests global investors are questioning the safe-haven status of US Treasuries.

Barring a dramatic further de-escalation of the trade war, the US and much of the rest of the world will enter a recession over the next few months. Investors should remain defensively positioned for now.

While the market welcomed the pause in Liberation Day tariffs, we believe investors are overly optimistic about the relief from this Trump-driven uncertainty. Even with the pause, current tariff levels remain higher than they were in…

China’s aggressive retaliation against U.S. tariffs will enable President Trump to shift from punishing allies and redirect the trade war toward China. If Beijing does not react to the latest tariffs by doubling its fiscal stimulus,…

We believe Beijing views these US trade actions as nothing short of a declaration of economic war, not just a trade dispute. The US-China confrontation is set to escalate from here. Chinese authorities will allow the yuan to…