US domestic politics, hypo-globalization, and Great Power Competition favor a revival of US manufacturing capacity. The industrial sector will benefit from the attempt to rebuild US manufacturing. Go long physical infrastructure and…
From a technical standpoint, the dollar is due for a bounce. In this report, we review various indicators to gauge the magnitude and duration of this rally. We also recommend two new trades: sell the gold/silver ratio at 90 and EUR/…
The risk-on rally is challenging our annual forecast so we are cutting some losses. But we still think central banks and geopolitics will combine to reverse the rally later this year.
The most important question investors need to answer is whether this is the right time to shift the portfolio to a more aggressive and cyclical stance now that the end of the hiking cycle is in sight. To answer this question, we…
European assets have enjoyed a stunning outperformance since October 2022. Can these strong returns last in 2023?
Today we are publishing a charts-only report focused on the key macroeconomic data as well as each GICS1 S&P 500 sector. Many of the charts are self-explanatory; to some we have added a short commentary. The charts cover macro,…
S&P 500 Growth stocks have underperformed the Value index by 21% so far this year, erasing all of their relative gains since the S&P 500’s March 23, 2020 pandemic bottom. This year’s rapid…
This week’s report examines the state of the global monetary tightening cycle and addresses some frequently asked questions about the Fed’s QT program. New yield curve trades are recommended for the US and German yield curves.
Sentiment toward stocks is depressed and European valuations have declined substantially. However, the earnings outlook remains poor. Which side will win?
Investors should go long US treasuries and stay overweight defensive versus cyclical sectors, large caps versus small caps, and aerospace/defense stocks. Regionally we favor the US, India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, while…