Technical

Dear client, In lieu of our regular report next Friday, we will be sending you a special report on Australia next Tuesday, co-authored with our Global Fixed Income colleagues. We hope you will find the report insightful. Kind regards, Chester   Highlights Any tactical bounce in the dollar should be limited to 2-4%. A barbell strategy is the most attractive positioning in the next one to three months: a basket of the cheapest currencies and some safe havens. Remain short the gold/silver ratio. Feature Chart I-1Dollar Downside Hits Q1 Forecasts Dollar Downside Hits Q1 Forecasts Dollar Downside Hits Q1 Forecasts The market narrative towards the dollar is turning more bullish. Fundamental analysts point to the recent rise in US interest rates, relative to countries like Germany or the United Kingdom, as a serious cause for concern. A rules-based technical approach certainly warned that the dollar was getting much oversold last year, and the recent bounce is reinvigorating the possibility of a more powerful countertrend move. Being in the dollar-bearish camp, the key question is: how large could a potential dollar bounce be, and for how long can it last? According to Bloomberg forecasters, the dollar has already exhausted any potential decline penciled in for the first quarter of this year. Q1 consensus forecasts for the DXY index sit at 90, exactly where the index level rests today (Chart I-1). Bloomberg has consistently lowballed the level of the dollar since 2018, making the current forecast unduly bullish. This dovetails with recent market commentary that the decline in the dollar is largely done, and powerful catalysts for a countertrend move could take hold. Risks From The Reflation Trade Chart I-2A Stock Market Rout Could Derail The Dollar A Stock Market Rout Could Derail The Dollar A Stock Market Rout Could Derail The Dollar An equity market correction could be one of the potential catalysts that pushes the dollar higher. We showed last week that the dollar and the S&P 500 have had a near-perfect inverse correlation (Chart I-2). When a stock market and its currency exhibit an inverse correlation, it means that foreign investors have been hedging their equity purchases by selling the currency forward. This is not usually the norm (equity relative performance and currencies tend to move together), but was especially the case last year as inflows into US equities surged, but the dollar declined. Should any profit taking ensue, this will trigger a knee-jerk rally in the dollar, as forward shorts are closed. A few equity indicators warn that we could be at the cusp of such a counter-trend move:  The put/call ratio in the US is extremely depressed. This warns that positioning is lopsided and could easily topple the equity market rally. A rising put / call ratio has been synonymous with a higher dollar over the past few years (Chart I-3). This will be consistent with foreign investors unwinding their dollar hedges (as they take profits on equities) and/or safe-haven inflows into the dollar. Chart I-3Both Puts And The Dollar Offer Protection Both Puts And The Dollar Offer Protection Both Puts And The Dollar Offer Protection Cyclical stocks continue to outperform defensive ones of late, but the cracks are beginning to emerge, specifically in the industrials space. Industrials share prices have been relapsing of late (Chart I-4). The dollar tends to weaken when cyclical stocks are outperforming defensive ones, and vice versa. This is because non-US equity markets have a much higher concentration of cyclical stocks in their bourses. The huge correction in the relative performance of the global tech sector also warns that the tech-heavy US bourse might benefit from any bounce in tech equities. Global earnings revisions are heading higher, but the momentum of US earnings has regained the upper hand, especially relative to the euro area. Bottom-up analysts are usually too optimistic about the level of earnings, but are generally spot on about their direction. Relative earnings revisions between the US and other markets have led the dollar by about nine to 12 months (Chart I-5). Should cyclical earnings hit a soft patch as the pandemic engulfs much of the developing world, the more defensive US market might prove resilient. Chart I-4A Red Flag From Global Industrials A Red Flag From Global Industrials A Red Flag From Global Industrials Chart I-5Earnings Revisions And The Dollar Earnings Revisions And The Dollar Earnings Revisions And The Dollar In a nutshell, corrections in equity markets are usually a healthy reset for the bull market to resume. In similar fashion, a washing out of stale US dollar short positions will ensure the bear market for 2021 unfolds with higher conviction. A garden-variety 5-10% cyclical correction in the S&P 500 has usually coincided with a 2-4% bounce in the DXY, as can be seen from Chart I-2. This could be the story over the next one to three months. The Signal From Currency Markets Our dollar capitulation index hit a nadir in July last year and has since been rebounding from very oversold levels. It has been very rare that a drop in this index below the 1.5 level did not trigger a rebound in the dollar (Chart I-6). Part of the reason this did not happen this time around has been concentration. Dollar short positions since 2020 have mostly been against the euro, yen and Swiss franc, with positioning in currencies such as the Australian dollar and Mexican peso more neutral. This will limit the extent to which the broad dollar index could rise from a flushing out of stale shorts. Chart I-6BCA Dollar Capitulation Index Suggests Some Upside BCA Dollar Capitulation Index Suggests Some Upside BCA Dollar Capitulation Index Suggests Some Upside For example, the exchange rate that best signals whether we are in a reflationary/deflationary environment is the AUD/JPY rate. Since the Great Recession, the yen has been the best performer during equity drawdowns, while the Aussie has been the worst. As a result, the AUD/JPY cross has consistently tracked the drawdown of the broad equity market (Chart I-7). As the bottom panel shows, exuberance in the AUD/JPY cross has also coincided with equity market peaks.  That exuberance hardly exists today. The AUD/JPY cross has consistently tracked the drawdown of the broad equity market. That said, speculators are very short the dollar, even if the currencies used to implement these views are very concentrated. Sentiment towards the dollar is the lowest in over a decade and our intermediate-term indicator is at bombed-out levels (Chart I-8). Chart I-7AUD/JPY As A Risk On Gauge AUD/JPY As A Risk On Gauge AUD/JPY As A Risk On Gauge Chart I-8The Dollar Is Oversold The Dollar Is Oversold The Dollar Is Oversold In a nutshell, the message from technical indicators is that a bounce in the dollar is to be expected. However, the magnitude will be smaller than prior episodes. Ever since the dollar peaked in March 2020, counter-trend moves have been in the order of 2-3%. We expect this time to be no different.  The Dollar And Commodities Commodity prices across the board have been on a tear. This has usually been an environment where the dollar is in a broad-based decline. Commodity prices hold a special place as FX market indicators, since they are both driven by final demand and financial speculation. More importantly, rising commodity demand can signal an improving FX trend between commodity producing (Australia, Canada, Mexico, Colombia, Russia) and importing (Euro area, India, Turkey, or even China) countries. We will buy the currencies of commodity producers on weakness as the bull market continues. Metals prices have exploded higher on strong demand, especially from China (Chart I-9). Not surprisingly, speculative positioning in copper options and futures is also extremely elevated. If investors have been betting on higher copper prices, based on the expectation of a lower dollar, then a relapse in the red metal will be synonymous with a higher greenback. That said, commodity bull markets have tended to last over a decade, with the recent rise in prices also driven by deficient supply. As such, we will buy the currencies of commodity producers on weakness, rather than sell on strength, as the bull market continues. This also argues for a fleeting technical bounce in the dollar. Chart I-9A Bull Market In Metals A Bull Market In Metals A Bull Market In Metals Chart I-10The Gold/Silver Ratio is Rebounding The Gold/Silver Ratio is Rebounding The Gold/Silver Ratio is Rebounding Within the commodity space, watching the gold/silver ratio (GSR) is instructive. The GSR tends to track the US dollar (Chart I-10). This is because it has usually rallied on safe-haven demand and relapsed once there is a pickup in economic (or manufacturing) activity. Gold benefits from plentiful liquidity and very low real rates, while silver benefits from rising industrial demand. It is possible the surge in global infections dampens economic activity and lifts demand for safe havens. This will be good for the dollar. However, as vaccinations take hold and the economy reopens, silver will surge. Relative Interest Rates Interest rates are moving in favor of the dollar, and there has been a long-standing relationship between relative real rates and the US currency. The question is whether the rise in US interest rates has been sufficient to compensate investors for the higher budget deficits they will need to finance. To answer this, it is always instructive to look at the relationship between gold and US Treasuries. Remarkably, the ratio of the total return in US government bonds-to-gold prices has tracked the dollar pretty well since the end of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s.  The bond-to-gold ratio is an important signal for the dollar, since both US Treasuries and gold are safe-haven assets and thus, by definition, are competing assets (Chart I-11). The ratio of the US bond ETF (TLT)-to-gold (GLD) is an important proxy for investor sentiment on the dollar (Chart I-12). Ultimately, investors are driven by real rates. Positive real returns will favor Treasuries, while negative real returns will favor gold. The latter appears to have the upper hand for now. Remarkably, the ratio of the total return in US government bonds-to-gold prices has tracked the dollar pretty well since the end of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s. Chart I-11Gold and Treasurys Are Competing Assets Gold and Treasurys Are Competing Assets Gold and Treasurys Are Competing Assets Chart I-12Watch The Bond-To-Gold Ratio Watch The Bond-To-Gold Ratio Watch The Bond-To-Gold Ratio The implication is that the rise in US interest rates has not yet convinced investors that a significant margin of safety exists for possible runaway inflation. This augurs badly for the dollar, beyond the near term. Investment Implications Our investment strategy is simple: hold a basket of the cheapest currencies and, some safe havens that will benefit if the dollar bounces. Opportunities at the crosses also make sense. On safe-haven currencies, our preferred vehicle is the Japanese yen, which sports an attractive real rate relative to the US. Relative value is particularly attractive on short CAD/NOK, long AUD/NZD, short EUR/GBP and long EUR/CHF. Stick with them. Stay short USD/JPY and long the Scandinavian currencies as a core holding. Remain short the gold/silver ratio.   Chester Ntonifor Foreign Exchange Strategist chestern@bcaresearch.com Currencies U.S. Dollar Chart II-1USD Technicals 1 USD Technicals 1 USD Technicals 1 Chart II-2USD Technicals 2 USD Technicals 2 USD Technicals 2 Recent data in the US have been resilient: The headline 140K job loss last Friday was not as dire, looking into the details. There was a net two-month revision of +135K jobs. Core CPI came in line at 1.6% year-on-year, while average weekly earnings surged by 4.9%. MBA mortgage applications came in at a blockbuster 16.7% week-on-week, for the week ending on January 8. The DXY rose by 0.3% this week. There was some element of consolidation in markets earlier this week, with a few equity bourses softening and the dollar catching a bid. However, that has been overwhelmed by the reflation trade as we go to press. We expect any dollar bounce to be technical in nature, and in order of magnitude of around 2-4%.  Report Links: The Dollar In A Blue Wave - January 8, 2021 The Dollar Conundrum And Protection - November 6, 2020 The Dollar In A Market Reset - October 30, 2020 The Euro Chart II-3EUR Technicals 1 EUR Technicals 1 EUR Technicals 1 Chart II-4EUR Technicals 2 EUR Technicals 2 EUR Technicals 2 Recent data from the euro area have help up: The unemployment rate in the euro area fell from 8.4% to 8.3% in November. Sentix investor confidence remains resilient at 1.3 in January, versus -2.7 the previous month. Industrial production in the euro area is recovering, as signaled by the PMI releases. The euro fell by 0.5% against the US dollar this week. The unfolding political crisis in Italy warns that the euro might be due for a setback, as European peripheral bond spreads rise. We remain bullish the euro longer-term, but short-term trades are at risk from lopsided positioning.  Report Links: The Dollar Conundrum And Protection - November 6, 2020 Addressing Client Questions - September 4, 2020 On The DXY Breakout, Euro, And Swiss Franc - February 21, 2020 The Japanese Yen Chart II-5JPY Technicals 1 JPY Technicals 1 JPY Technicals 1 Chart II-6JPY Technicals 2 JPY Technicals 2 JPY Technicals 2 Recent data from Japan has been better than expected: The expectations component of the Eco Watchers Survey rose from 36.5 to 37.1, versus expectations of 30.5 in December. Machine tool orders continued to inflect higher in December, to the tune of 8.7% year-on-year. Bank lending remained around a robust 6% in December. The Japanese yen was flat against the US dollar this week. Japanese fixed income investors are in a quagmire, since nominal rates are better in the US, but real rates are more favorable in Japan. The yen could remain caught in a tug of war between these forces, with a slight advantage to Japanese rates. We remain long the yen as a portfolio hedge.   Report Links: The Dollar Conundrum And Protection - November 6, 2020 The Near-Term Bull Case For The Dollar - February 28, 2020 Building A Protector Currency Portfolio - February 7, 2020 British Pound Chart II-7GBP Technicals 1 GBP Technicals 1 GBP Technicals 1 Chart II-8GBP Technicals 2 GBP Technicals 2 GBP Technicals 2 There was scant data out of the UK this week: BRC like-for-like sales rose by 4.8% year-on-year in December. The British pound rose by 0.8% against the US dollar this week. Vaccinations continue to progress smoothly in the UK, but cracks are already starting to emerge in the post Brexit UK-EU relationship. There are mounting food shortages in Northern Ireland and a hiccup in fish exports from the UK, as the necessary paperwork adds a layer of bureaucracy. As investors digest the potential impact to the pound, it will add to volatility. Ultimately, a cheap pound should outperform both the dollar and euro. Report Links: The Dollar Conundrum And Protection - November 6, 2020 Revisiting Our High-Conviction Trades - September 11, 2020 Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019 Australian Dollar Chart II-9AUD Technicals 1 AUD Technicals 1 AUD Technicals 1 Chart II-10AUD Technicals 2 AUD Technicals 2 AUD Technicals 2 There was little data out of Australia this week: The final retail sales print was 7.1% month-on-month in November. The Australian dollar appreciated by 0.4% against the US dollar this week. Base metals, especially copper and iron ore have been on a tear this year. This is boosting Australian terms of trade. More importantly, a shortage of ships has catapulted Asian LNG prices to all-time highs as a cold spell hits countries like Japan and Korea. This should be beneficial for Australian energy producers. We are currently long AUD/NZD. Report Links: An Update On The Australian Dollar - September 18, 2020 On AUD And CNY - January 17, 2020 Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019 New Zealand Dollar Chart II-11NZD Technicals 1 NZD Technicals 1 NZD Technicals 1 Chart II-12NZD Technicals 2 NZD Technicals 2 NZD Technicals 2 There was scant data out of New Zealand this week: REINZ house sales rose by 36.6% year-on-year in December. Building permits rose 1.2% month-on-month in November. The New Zealand dollar fell by 0.3% against the US dollar this week. The release of the US WASDE report confirmed a looming agricultural shortage, as production forecasts were slashed on weather worries. This is NZD bullish. That said, technically, agricultural prices are stretched, and so some consolidation will deflate air off the high-flying kiwi. In a commodity basket, we prefer the Aussie that is underpinned by more structural factors. Report Links: Currencies And The Value-Versus-Growth Debate - July 10, 2020 Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019 Place A Limit Sell On DXY At 100 - November 15, 2019 Canadian Dollar Chart II-13CAD Technicals 1 CAD Technicals 1 CAD Technicals 1 Chart II-14CAD Technicals 2 CAD Technicals 2 CAD Technicals 2 Recent data from Canada have been disappointing: Employment fell by 62.6K jobs in December. However, this was driven by 99K part-time job losses, with full-time job gains of 36.5K. The sales outlook in the BoC survey improved from 39 to 48 in 4Q 2020. The Canadian dollar appreciated by 0.5% against the US dollar this week. Oil prices are dominating commodity gains this year, given the shift from Saudi Arabia and the prospect of higher transport demand. This bodes well for the loonie. Report Links: Currencies And The Value-Versus-Growth Debate - July 10, 2020 More On Competitive Devaluations, The CAD And The SEK - May 1, 2020 A New Paradigm For Petrocurrencies - April 10, 2020 Swiss Franc Chart II-15CHF Technicals 1 CHF Technicals 1 CHF Technicals 1 Chart II-16CHF Technicals 2 CHF Technicals 2 CHF Technicals 2 Recent data from Switzerland have been mixed: The unemployment rate was flat at 3.4% in December. FX reserves increased from CHF 876 billion to CHF 891 billion. The Swiss franc fell by 0.2% against the US dollar this week. The biggest risk to Switzerland and the SNB authorities is a potential correction in the euro, which encourages safe-haven flows into the franc. This will also be a risk to our long EUR/CHF position. Our bias is that the valuation cushion on the cross provides an ample margin of safety. Report Links: The Dollar Conundrum And Protection - November 6, 2020 On The DXY Breakout, Euro, And Swiss Franc - February 21, 2020 Currency Market Signals From Gold, Equities And Flows - January 31, 2020 Norwegian Krone Chart II-17NOK Technicals 1 NOK Technicals 1 NOK Technicals 1 Chart II-18NOK Technicals 2 NOK Technicals 2 NOK Technicals 2 The data out of Norway has been robust: Headline CPI came in at 1.4% year-on-year, while underlying CPI was a whopping 3%. House prices rose 2.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q4. Industrial production came in at -0.9% in November, an improvement from -2.7% the previous month. The Norwegian krone is the best performing currency this year at +1.5%. Good management of the COVID-19 situation as well as rising oil prices have been positive catalysts. We expect the krone to keep outperforming for the rest of the year. Report Links: Revisiting Our High-Conviction Trades - September 11, 2020 A New Paradigm For Petrocurrencies - April 10, 2020 Building A Protector Currency Portfolio - February 7, 2020 Swedish Krona Chart II-19SEK Technicals 1 SEK Technicals 1 SEK Technicals 1 Chart II-20SEK Technicals 2 SEK Technicals 2 SEK Technicals 2 Recent data from Sweden has been rather disappointing: Private sector production fell by 1% year-on-year in November. We would expect this to reverse with the improvement in the December PMIs. Industrial orders rose 5.7% year-on-year in November. Household consumption fell 5% year-on-year in November. The Swedish krona has been the worst performing currency this year, falling by 0.7% against the US dollar this week. That said, it might be a case of profit taking. The Swedish krona remains cheap and should benefit from an upshot in the global manufacturing cycle. Report Links: Revisiting Our High-Conviction Trades - September 11, 2020 Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019 Where To Next For The US Dollar? - June 7, 2019 Trades & Forecasts Forecast Summary Core Portfolio Tactical Trades Limit Orders Closed Trades

Highlights The (earnings) yield premium on tech stocks versus the 10-year bond yield is at its 2.5 percent lower threshold that has signalled four previous market fragilities. Additionally, the 65-day fractal structure of stocks versus bonds has collapsed, signalling a high probability of an exhaustion or correction over the next 65 days. Likewise, the 130-day fractal structure of bitcoin has also collapsed, signalling a high probability of an exhaustion or correction over the next 130 days. Bond yields are unlikely to go much higher; they are likely to go lower. Prefer utilities within the value segment, and prefer healthcare within the growth segment. Offices and bricks-and-mortar retail will never fully reopen. This will devastate the jobs market once the protection from government-funded furlough schemes winds down in 2021. Feature The pandemic will ease in 2021, and with it many of the restrictions on our lives. Yet when it comes to the economy and investment, the great reopening narrative for 2021 is misleading because the world economy has already largely reopened. We quickly learned that, with some adaptations, like working from home, and doing our shopping online, almost all economic activity can resume during a raging global pandemic. As a result, global profits have already rebounded very strongly (Chart of the Week). Chart of the WeekGlobal Profits Have Already Rebounded Very Strongly Global Profits Have Already Rebounded Very Strongly Global Profits Have Already Rebounded Very Strongly Manufacturing is fully open. Construction is fully open. Industrial production is fully open. Finance and most services are fully open. Looking at the world’s two largest economies, China is already beyond its pre-pandemic levels of output (Chart I-2), while the US is a mere 0.9 percent below (based on the Atlanta Fed Nowcast of 2.6 percent growth in the fourth quarter)1 (Chart I-3). Chart I-2The Chinese Economy Has Already Rebounded The Chinese Economy Has Already Rebounded The Chinese Economy Has Already Rebounded Chart I-3The US Economy Has Already ##br##Rebounded The US Economy Has Already Rebounded The US Economy Has Already Rebounded   Offices And Bricks-And-Mortar Retail Will Never Fully Reopen In the great reopening narrative, the end of the pandemic will allow the full reopening of offices, shops, restaurants, bars, travel and leisure. But will former office workers flock back to their offices full-time, or even majority-time? Will consumers flock back to bricks-and-mortar retailers? Will firms flock back to the same extent of business travel? Our high conviction answers are no, no, and no. The reason we will not go back to the pre-pandemic way of doing things is because we have found a better way of doing things. Obviously, we will relish our re-found ability to go on holiday and to meet our fellow humans in the flesh. But do we really need to meet our co-workers every day, or even most days? Do we really need to do our shopping in person every time, or even most times? Do we really need to visit the overseas office every quarter? In 2021 and beyond, we will continue to work, shop, and interact more remotely, not because a pandemic forces us to, but because it improves the quality of our personal and working lives. It improves our standard of living. In 2021 and beyond, we will continue to work, shop, and interact more remotely. Unfortunately, there will be collateral damage. As working from home becomes mainstream, the ecosystem of city centre bars, restaurants, and shops that rely on office workers will wither. This ecosystem’s large footprint can be illustrated by a remarkable fact: the pre-pandemic populations of both Manhattan and central London were 2 million people greater during the weekday daytime than during the night-time. Likewise, as online shopping becomes the default, bricks-and-mortar retailing will go into terminal decline. This is significant because retail employs 10 percent of all workers in the US and the UK, the majority in bricks-and-mortar retail outlets. In the same way, more online meetings and fewer business trips means less employment in the travel and accommodation sectors.  The common thread connecting retail and accommodation and food services is that they produce relatively little output, but account for a lot of jobs – in fact, just 8 percent of output but 20 percent of all jobs (Table I-1). Table I-1Retail Plus Accommodation And Food Services Account For 8 Percent Of Output But 20 Percent Of Jobs Stocks Are Vulnerable… And So Is Bitcoin Stocks Are Vulnerable… And So Is Bitcoin Hence, as these sectors wither, the good news is that the impact on economic output will be modest. The bad news is that the ultimate impact on the jobs market will be devastating. Crucially, this ultimate impact on the jobs market will only be felt once the protection from government-funded furlough schemes winds down in 2021. In time, a dynamic economy will redeploy the army of shop assistants, city centre bar and restaurant staff, and cabin crew into fast growing sectors such as healthcare and education. But a process that requires retraining and reskilling will take years not months. During this long adjustment, there is likely to be huge slack in developed economy labour markets. Given that central banks are now explicitly targeting labour market slack, these central banks will be forced to keep nominal bond yields at ultra-low levels for a very long time. The Near-Term Constraint On Bond Yields In the near term, there is an even greater force holding bond yields in check, and that force is something that central banks also explicitly target – financial stability. Higher bond yields would imperil financial stability. The global stock market is at an all-time high because valuations stand 25 percent higher than a year ago (Chart I-4). Valuations have surged because bond yields have collapsed (Chart I-5), but even relative to these ultra-low bond yields, technology sector valuations are now stretched. Chart I-4The Global Stock Market Is At An All-Time High Because Valuations Are 25 Percent Higher The Global Stock Market Is At An All-Time High Because Valuations Are 25 Percent Higher The Global Stock Market Is At An All-Time High Because Valuations Are 25 Percent Higher Chart I-5Valuations Are 25 Percent Higher Because Bond Yields Have Collapsed Valuations Are 25 Percent Higher Because Bond Yields Have Collapsed Valuations Are 25 Percent Higher Because Bond Yields Have Collapsed The (earnings) yield premium on tech stocks versus the 10-year bond yield is at its 2.5 percent lower threshold that has signalled four previous market fragilities. These previous market fragilities resulted in an exhaustion, or worse, a correction in the stock market in February 2018, October 2018, April 2019, and January 2020. Just as important, these points of fragility signalled that bond yields were approaching a major or minor peak (Chart I-6). Chart I-6Tech Stock Valuations Are Fragile Tech Stock Valuations Are Fragile Tech Stock Valuations Are Fragile Hence, in the early part of 2021 at least, steer towards investments that will benefit from a backing down of bond yields. This means avoiding value stocks as an aggregate, because value cannot outperform growth unless bond yields are rising (Chart I-7). However, it also means avoiding growth stocks in aggregate as the fragility lies in tech stock valuations. Chart I-7Value Cannot Outperform Growth Unless Bond Yields Are Rising Value Cannot Outperform Growth Unless Bond Yields Are Rising Value Cannot Outperform Growth Unless Bond Yields Are Rising A good strategy is to prefer utilities within the value segment, given that utilities benefit from lower bond yields (Chart I-8). And prefer healthcare within the growth segment, given the sector’s more reasonable valuation. Chart I-8Banks Cannot Outperform Utilities Unless Bond Yields Are Rising Banks Cannot Outperform Utilities Unless Bond Yields Are Rising Banks Cannot Outperform Utilities Unless Bond Yields Are Rising Stocks Are Vulnerable… And So Is Bitcoin Manias occur in markets when marginal buyers keep flooding in at a higher and higher price. (Likewise, panics occur when marginal sellers keep flooding in at a lower and lower price.) The supply of marginal buyers fuelling the strong uptrend tends to come from longer-term investors who are uncharacteristically behaving like short-term momentum traders for fear of missing out on the rally. For example, an investor with a 130-day investment horizon shouldn’t buy because of a one-day price increase. If he does, then his investment horizon has shrunk to 1-day. In this example, the strong uptrend will run out of fuel when the 130-day investors who are fuelling it are all in. This is defined by the 130-day fractal structure of the investment collapsing, meaning that its 130-day fractal dimension has reached its lower bound. If someone now puts on a sell order, there are no more 130-day horizon investors available to be the marginal buyer at the current price. Having sucked in all the 130-day investors, an investor with an even longer horizon, say 260 days, must step in as the marginal buyer. The likely outcome is a price correction because the longer-term investor is likely to buy only when a lower price satisfies his value compass. The other possibility is that the 260-day investor joins the uptrend, becoming a marginal buyer at the current price, adding more fuel to the mania. This is the less likely outcome because the longer that an investor’s horizon is, the more faithful he is likely to be to his valuation compass. Nevertheless, sometimes the valuation compass goes awry because of structural shifts or massive intervention by policymakers, allowing the trend to continue. The above describes the basis of our proprietary fractal trading system. In a nutshell, when the fractal structure of an investment collapses, the probability of a trend reversal increases sharply, and the probability of a trend continuation decreases sharply. Right now, the 65-day fractal structure of stocks versus bonds has collapsed, signalling a high probability of an exhaustion or correction over the next 65 days (see final section). Likewise, the 130-day fractal structure of bitcoin has also collapsed, signalling a high probability of an exhaustion or correction over the next 130 days (Chart I-9). Chart I-9The 130-Day Fractal Structure Of Bitcoin Has Collapsed Bitcoin Bitcoin To be clear, these rallies can continue uninterrupted if longer-term investors join the bandwagon. But this would require them to discard their valuation compasses. Hence, on balance, we think that this is the lower probability outcome. Also, to be clear, the long-term direction of both stocks versus bonds and bitcoin is up. The vulnerability we refer to is of a tactical pullback within a structural uptrend. An Excellent Year For The Fractal Trading System Among our most recent trades, overweight Portugal versus Italy achieved its 7 percent profit target, and underweight Australian construction materials (James Hardie, Lendlease, and Boral) achieved its 6 percent profit target. This takes the 2020 win ratio to a very pleasing 63 percent, comprising 18.4 winning trades versus 11 losing trades. Using a position size that delivers 2 percent for a win (and -2 percent for a loss), this equates to a 2020 return of 15 percent with a worst drawdown of -6 percent. By comparison, the MSCI All Country World index delivered a similar return of 17 percent but with a much more severe worst drawdown of -34 percent. 63 percent is a great win ratio. 63 percent is a great win ratio, but our aim is to reach 70 percent. To this end we are preparing several enhancements to the system which we will unveil in the coming weeks. Stay tuned. Fractal Trading System* As already discussed, we are targeting a tactical pullback in the MSCI All Country World Index versus the 30-year T-bond. The profit-target and symmetrical stop-loss are set at 5.8 percent. Chart I-10 MSCI All-Country World Vs. 30-Year T-Bond MSCI All-Country World Vs. 30-Year T-Bond The rolling 12-month win ratio now stands at 63 percent. When the fractal dimension approaches the lower limit after an investment has been in an established trend it is a potential trigger for a liquidity-triggered trend reversal. Therefore, open a countertrend position. The profit target is a one-third reversal of the preceding 13-week move. Apply a symmetrical stop-loss. Close the position at the profit target or stop-loss. Otherwise close the position after 13 weeks. * For more details please see the European Investment Strategy Special Report “Fractals, Liquidity & A Trading Model,” dated   December 11, 2014, available at eis.bcaresearch.com.   Dhaval Joshi Chief European Investment Strategist dhaval@bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1 The GDP rebound creates a dissonance. If GDP is indicating a largely recovered economy, but our lives feel far from normal, is GDP really a good measure or objective for our wellbeing? We will leave a deeper discussion of this to a later date. 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Highlights Portfolio Strategy We recommend investors participate in the equity market rotation during the ongoing correction and position portfolios for next year’s bull market resumption by preferring unloved and undervalued deep cyclical laggards. Ultra-loose Chinese fiscal policy, rising global demand and firming domestic operating conditions, all signal that the S&P machinery recovery has legs.    Vibrant emerging markets and a recuperating China, a softening US dollar rekindling the commodity complex, the nascent recovery in domestic conditions and washed out technicals, all suggest that a significant re-rating looms for severely neglected industrials equities.    Recent Changes Our trailing stop got triggered and we downgraded the S&P internet retail index to neutral for a gain of 20% since the mid-April inception. This move also pushed our S&P consumer discretionary sector weighting to a benchmark allocation for a gain of 15% since inception. Table 1 Riot Point Looms Riot Point Looms Feature The S&P 500 broke below the important 50-day moving average last week, but managed to bounce off the early-June 3233 level – also a level where the SPX started the year – that could serve as temporary support (Chart 1). We first highlighted that investors were turning a blind eye to (geo)political risks on June 8, and failure to pass a new fiscal package before the election will continue to weigh on the economy and on stocks risking a further 10% drawdown near the SPX 3000 level. Chart 1Critical Support Levels Riot Point Looms Riot Point Looms The Fed is now “out of the loop” i.e. a bystander on the sidelines, gently moving the foot off the accelerator as we illustrated last week. The FOMC’s, at the margin, less dovish monetary policy setting exerts enormous pressure on fiscal authorities to act as fiscal policy takes center stage. Our sense is that we have entered a Fiscal Policy Loop (FPL) where stalemate in Congress will cause a classic BCA riot point that in turn will force politicians’ hand to act in order to avoid a meltdown, and set in motion the next stage of the FPL (Figure 1). Keep in mind that the 2020s have ignited a paradigm shift from the Washington Consensus to the Buenos Aires Consensus1 and this is episode one of the FPL, more are sure to follow.    Figure 1The Fiscal Policy Loop Riot Point Looms Riot Point Looms It is no surprise that the Citi economic surprise index took off when the IRS started making direct payments to households in mid-April and leveled off toward the end of July when the stimulus money coffers ran dry (Chart 2). Chart 2In Dire Need Of Fiscal Stimulus In Dire Need Of Fiscal Stimulus In Dire Need Of Fiscal Stimulus If Congress fails to pass a new fiscal package by October 16, the latest now that the Ruth Bader Ginsburg SCOTUS replacement seems to have become the number one priority, we doubt a fiscal package can pass during a contested election. Thus, realistically a fresh stimulus bill is likely only after the new president’s inauguration. Under such a backdrop, the economy will suffer a relapse despite households drawing down their replenished savings (middle panel, Chart 3). This is eerily reminiscent of the October 2008 and October 2018 fiscal policy and monetary policy mistakes, respectively, that resulted in a market riot. Similar to today, markets were down 10% and on a precipice and the policy errors pushed them off the cliff leading to another 10% gap down in a heartbeat. With regard to equity market specifics during the current FPL iteration, banks are most at risk as they are levered to the economic recovery, and commercial real estate ails remain a big headache. Absent a fiscal package bank executives will have to further provision for loan losses when they kick off Q3 earnings season in late-October as CEOs will err on the side of caution. Tack on the recent news on laundering money – including by US banks – and the Fed’s new stringent stress tests, and the risk/reward tradeoff remains poor for the banking sector (bottom panel, Chart 3).  Odds are high that volatility will remain elevated heading into the election, therefore this phase represents an opportunity for investors to reshuffle portfolios and prepare for an eventual resumption of the bull market in early-2021. We continue to recommend investors avoid our “COVID-19 winners” basket and prefer our “back-to work” equity basket that we initiated on September 8. Similarly, this pullback is serving as a catalyst to shift some capital out of the fully valued tech titans and into other beaten down parts of the deep cyclical universe. Chart 3Show Me The Money Show Me The Money Show Me The Money We doubt this correction is over as positioning in the NASDAQ 100 derivative markets is still lopsided; stale bulls are caught net long as NQ futures are deflating, thus a flush out looms (Chart 4).  Chart 4Flush Out Flush Out Flush Out The easy money has likely been made in the tech titans that near the peak on September 2, AAPL, MSFT and AMZN each commanded an almost $2tn market capitalization. Thus, booking some of these tech gains and redeploying capital in other unloved deep cyclical sectors would go a long way, especially if our thesis that the economic recovery will gain steam into 2021 pans out.  Using a concrete rebalancing example to illustrate such a rotation is instructive.2 The tech titans’ (top 5 stocks) market cap weight in the SPX is 22%. Were an investor to take 10% of this weight or 220bps and redeploy it to the materials sector, which commands a 2.7% market cap weight in the SPX, would effectively double the exposure on this deep cyclical sector. The same would apply to the energy sector that comprises a mere 2.2% of the SPX, while industrials with an 8.4% market cap weight would get a sizable 26% lift (Chart 5). As a reminder our portfolio has an above benchmark allocation in all three deep cyclical sectors, and this week we reiterate our overweight stance on both the industrials sector and on a key subgroup. Chart 5Rotation Rotation Rotation Rotation Rotation Rotation Rotation Rotation Rotation Buy The Machinery Breakout Were we not already overweight the S&P machinery index, would we upgrade today? The short answer is yes. Aggressive loosening in Chinese financial conditions have underpinned the economic recovery (second & third panels, Chart 6). Infrastructure projects are making a comeback and absorbing the slack in machinery demand caused by COVID-19. As a result, Chinese excavator sales have soared in the past quarter which bodes well for US machinery profit prospects (bottom panel, Chart 6). Beyond China, emerging markets demand for machinery equipment is robust as the commodity complex is recovering smartly (second panel Chart 7). The US dollar bear market is also bolstering global trade growth, despite the greenback’s recent technical bounce, and should continue to underpin machinery net export growth and therefore profit growth for US machinery manufacturers (third & bottom panels, Chart 7).   Chart 6Enticing Chinese Backdrop Enticing Chinese Backdrop Enticing Chinese Backdrop Chart 7Dollar The Great Reflator Dollar The Great Reflator Dollar The Great Reflator The domestic machinery demand backdrop is also conducive to a renormalization of top line growth to a higher run-rate. The ISM manufacturing new orders sub-component is shooting the lights out, heralding a jump in machinery orders in the coming months (second panel, Chart 8). Simultaneously, a quick inventory check is revealing: both in the manufacturing and wholesale channels cupboards are bare which means that the risk of a liquidation phase in non-existent (third panel, Chart 8). Encouragingly, an inventory buildup phase is looming in order to satisfy firming demand. The tick up in machinery industrial production growth, the V-shaped recovery in the utilization rate and newly expanding backlog orders, all suggest that domestic demand conditions are on the mend (Chart 9). Tack on still prudent payrolls management that is keeping the machinery industry’s wage bill at bay (bottom panel, Chart 8), and a profit margin expansion phase is a high probability outcome. Chart 8What’s Not… What’s Not… What’s Not… Chart 9…To Like …To Like …To Like Our resurgent S&P machinery revenue growth model and climbing profit growth model do an excellent job in encapsulating all the industry’s moving parts and suggest that the path of least resistance is higher for relative share prices in the New Year (Chart 10). Finally, relative valuations have also recovered from the depth of the recession, but are only back to the neutral zone leaving enough room for a multiple expansion phase (Chart 11). Chart 10Models Say Buy Models Say Buy Models Say Buy Chart 11Compelling Entry Point Compelling Entry Point Compelling Entry Point In sum, ultra-loose Chinese fiscal policy, rising global demand and firming domestic operating conditions, all signal that the S&P machinery recovery has legs.    Bottom Line: Stay overweight the S&P machinery index. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG S5MACH– CAT, DE, PH, ITW, IR, CMI, PCAR, FTV, OTIS, SWK, DOV, XYL, WAB, IEX, SNA, PNR, FLS. Industrials Are Jumpstarting Their Engines We have been offside on the S&P industrials sector, but now is not the time to throw in the towel. In contrast we are doubling down on our overweight stance as the ongoing rotation should see some tech sector outflows find their way to under-owned capital goods producers. Industrials equities have been on the selling block and suffered a wholesale liquidation during the dark days of the COVID-19 pandemic, and have yet to regain their footing (top panel, Chart 12). The GE and Boeing sagas have dealt a big blow to this deep cyclical sector, but now this market cap weighted sector has filtered these stocks out as neither of these “fallen angels” is occupying a spot in the top 5 weight ranks. Relative valuations are washed out, and relative technicals are still deep in oversold territory (second & third panels Chart 12). Sell-side analysts are the most pessimistic they have been on record with regard to the long-term EPS growth rate that is penciled in to trail the broad market by almost 800bps (bottom panel, Chart 12)! All this bearishness is contrarily positive as a little bit of good news can go a long way. Already, relative EPS breadth is stealthily coming back, and net earnings revisions are rocketing higher (Chart 13).  Chart 12Liquidation Phase… Liquidation Phase… Liquidation Phase… Chart 13…Is Over …Is Over …Is Over One reason behind this optimism rests with the domestic recovery. Capex intentions are firming and CEO confidence is upbeat for the coming six months. The ISM manufacturing new orders-to-inventories ratio is corroborating the budding recovery in the soft data. Green shoots are also evident in hard data releases. Durable goods orders are on the verge of expanding anew (Chart 14). Emerging markets (EM) and China represent another source of industrials sector buoyancy. The EM manufacturing PMI clocking in at 52.5 hit an all-time high. China’s PMIs are also on a similar trajectory, and the Chinese Citi economic surprise index has swung a whopping 300 points from -240 to above +60 over the past six months. The upshot is that US industrials stocks should outperform when China and the EM are vibrant (Chart 15). Chart 14Domestic And … Domestic And … Domestic And … Chart 15… EM Green Shoots Are Bullish … EM Green Shoots Are Bullish … EM Green Shoots Are Bullish Peering over to the currency market, the debasing of the US dollar should also underpin industrials stocks via the export relief valve (third panel, Chart 16). A depreciating greenback also lifts the commodity complex and hence industrials equities that are levered to the extraction of commodities and other derivative activities (top panel, Chart 16). Historically, an appreciating USD has been synonymous with a multiple contraction phase and vice versa. Looking ahead, the industrials sector relative 12-month forward P/E multiple should continue to expand smartly (bottom panel, Chart 16). The US Equity Strategy’s macro based EPS growth model captures all the different earnings drivers and signals that an earnings-led recovery is in the offing (Chart 17). Chart 16The Greenback Holds The Key The Greenback Holds The Key The Greenback Holds The Key Chart 17Models Flashing Green Models Flashing Green Models Flashing Green Adding it all up, vibrant emerging markets and a recuperating China, a softening US dollar rekindling the commodity complex, the nascent recovery in domestic conditions and washed out technicals, all suggest that a significant re-rating looms for severely neglected industrials equities.   Bottom Line: We continue to recommend an above benchmark allocation in the S&P industrials sector.   Anastasios Avgeriou US Equity Strategist anastasios@bcaresearch.com   Footnotes 1     The Washington Consensus – a catchall term for fiscal prudence, laissez-faire economics, free trade, and unfettered capital flows – is being replaced by economic populism, by a Buenos Aires Consensus. Buenos Aires Consensus is our catchall term for everything that is opposite of the Washington Consensus: less globalization, fiscal stimulus as far as the eyes can see, erosion of central bank independence, and a dirigiste (as opposed to laissez-faire) approach to economics that seeks to protect “state champions,” stifles innovation, and ultimately curbs productivity growth. 2     Our example assumes benchmark allocation in all sectors for illustrative purposes.   Current Recommendations Current Trades Strategic (10-Year) Trade Recommendations Drilling Deeper Into Earnings Drilling Deeper Into Earnings Size And Style Views July 27, 2020 Overweight cyclicals over defensives April 28, 2020  Stay neutral large over small caps June 11, 2018 Long the BCA Millennial basket  The ticker symbols are: (AAPL, AMZN, UBER, HD, LEN, MSFT, NFLX, SPOT, TSLA, V). January 22, 2018 Favor value over growth

Highlights Most sentiment and technical indicators suggest the dollar is undergoing a countertrend bounce rather than entering a new bull market. However, the internal dynamics of financial markets remain short-term constructive for the DXY. The DXY could rise to 96 before working off oversold conditions. Stay short USD/JPY as a core holding. Look to rebuy a basket of Scandinavian currencies versus the USD and EUR at a trigger point of -2%. Go long sterling if it drops to 1.25. Remain short EUR/GBP. Feature Chart I-1The Dollar Is A Counter-Cyclical Currency The Dollar Is A Counter-Cyclical Currency The Dollar Is A Counter-Cyclical Currency The world remains dominated by the reflation trade. The equity market downdraft this past March and the subsequent recovery since April has been a mirror image of the rise and fall of the dollar (Chart I-1). This suggests that at a minimum, the Federal Reserve’s actions and Washington’s policy decisions have served as important pillars in the global economic recovery. A falling dollar tends to reflate the global economy, so it is important to gauge whether the recent bounce is technical in nature or at risk of a more meaningful increase. From an investment perspective, the economic outlook as we enter the final stretch of 2020 is as uncertain as ever. Factors such as the potential for renewed lockdowns, a fiscal cliff in the US, political uncertainty due to Brexit, and the possibility of a contested US election all make for a very complex decision tree. As investors try to decipher the end game, we turn to the internal dynamics of financial markets for a more sober view. Sentiment and technical indicators make up an important component of our currency framework, and are usually good at gauging important shifts in financial markets. Given market action over the past few weeks, we are reviewing a few of these key indicators to help guide currency strategy into year-end and beyond. The Signal From Currency Markets The message from our currency market indicators suggests a technical bounce in the dollar rather than a renewed bear market. The exchange rate that best signals whether we are in a reflationary/deflationary environment is the AUD/JPY rate.  Chart I-2DXY Is Testing Strong Resistance The Message From Dollar Sentiment And Technical Indicators The Message From Dollar Sentiment And Technical Indicators From a broad perspective, the DXY index was oversold, having broken below key support levels this year. More recently, the bounce in the DXY index has brought it a nudge above the upward-sloping trend line, which had defined the bull market since the 2011 lows (Chart I-2). A significant bounce from current levels will be worrisome. More likely, the dollar will churn near current levels before resuming its downtrend. In other words, we expect that, going forward, this upward-sloped line will act as powerful overhead resistance. The exchange rate that best signals whether we are in a reflationary/deflationary environment is the AUD/JPY rate (Chart I-3). Since the Great Recession, the yen has been the best performer during equity drawdowns, while the Aussie has been the worst. As a result, the AUD/JPY cross has consistently bottomed at the key support zone of 72-74. This defensive line notably held during the European debt crisis, China’s industrial recession, and the global trade war. The frontier was clearly breached during the March drawdown this year, but we have since re-entered the safe zone (Chart I-4). Going forward, a break below 72 will be worrisome. Looking at the intra-day charts, we see a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows since the September 10th peak. That said, speculators are still short the cross, suggesting that the level of complacency going into the February equity market drawdown is not there today (Chart I-4, bottom panel). Chart I-3The Reflation Trade The Reflation Trade The Reflation Trade Chart I-4AUD/JPY: Watch The 72-24 Zone AUD/JPY: Watch The 72-24 Zone AUD/JPY: Watch The 72-24 Zone   High-beta carry currencies such as the RUB, ZAR, MXN, and BRL have been rather weak, even if they are still holding above their lows. These currencies are usually good at sniffing out a change in the investment landscape, specifically one becoming fertile for carry trades. Carry trades usually do well when US yields are low and the global growth environment is improving (Chart I-5). The message so far is that the drop in U.S. bond yields may not have been sufficient to make these currencies attractive again. This is confirmed by the performance of the Deutsche Bank carry ETF, DBV, which has been struggling to recover amid very low rates (Chart I-6). Chart I-5Carry Trades Are Lagging Carry Trades Are Lagging Carry Trades Are Lagging Chart I-6Carry Trade ETFs Have Underperformed Carry Trade ETFs Have Underperformed Carry Trade ETFs Have Underperformed Speculators are very short the dollar. Whenever the percentage of leveraged funds and overall speculators that are short the dollar is at or below 20%, a meaningful rally ensues (Chart I-7). However, because the dollar is a momentum currency, reversion-to-the-mean strategies work in the short term but not so much longer term. The dollar advance/decline line remains well below its 200-day moving average. Meanwhile, there is a death-cross formation between the 200-day and 400-day moving averages. This is a very bearish technical profile (Chart I-8). We cannot rule out rallies toward the 200-day moving average, but for now we remain well below this danger zone. Chart I-7Rising Number Of Dollar Bears Rising Number Of Dollar Bears Rising Number Of Dollar Bears Chart I-8A Cyclical Bear Market A Cyclical Bear Market A Cyclical Bear Market Finally, currency volatility is rising from very depressed levels. Usually, low currency volatility is a sign of complacency among traders and investors, while higher volatility signals a more balanced and healthy market rotation. Over the last three episodes where volatility rose from these oversold levels, the dollar soared and pro-cyclical currencies suffered severe losses. For example, the most significant episodes were 1997-1998, 2007-2008, and 2014-2015 (Chart I-9). The one difference this time around is that the dollar is expensive, while it was very cheap during previous riot points. This argues for a technical bounce, rather than a renewed bull market. Chart I-9Currency Volatility Has Spiked Currency Volatility Has Spiked Currency Volatility Has Spiked In a nutshell, the message from technical indicators is that the bounce in the dollar was to be expected. However, we are monitoring a few worrisome developments. First, the consensus is overwhelmingly bearish on the dollar, which could make this bounce advance much further than most expect. Second, spikes in volatility, especially as the equity market corrects, are traditionally dollar bullish. The Signal From Commodity Markets Commodity prices hold a special place as FX market indicators, since they are both driven by final demand and financial speculation. Over the years, we have found that the internal dynamics of commodity prices usually send key signals for underlying FX market trends. Overall, the signals are also mixed: The copper-to-gold ratio has bottomed and is heading higher from deeply oversold levels. Together with the stabilization in government bond yields, it signifies that the liquidity-to-growth transmission mechanism might be working. This is usually dollar bearish, as rising global growth leads to capital outflows from the US (Chart I-10). The Gold/Silver ratio (GSR) tends to track the US dollar, and its recent rebound is worrisome (Chart I-11). The GSR provides important information on the battleground between easing financial conditions and a pickup in economic (or manufacturing) activity. Gold benefits from plentiful liquidity and very low real rates, while silver benefits from rising industrial demand. Therefore, the GSR rallies during periods of financial stress that forces policymakers to act, and peaks as we exit a recession into a recovery. Chart I-10The Copper/Gold Ratio Leads The Dollar The Copper/Gold Ratio Leads The Dollar The Copper/Gold Ratio Leads The Dollar Chart I-11The Gold/Silver Ratio Is Rebounding The Gold/Silver Ratio Is Rebounding The Gold/Silver Ratio Is Rebounding We had a limit-sell order on the GSR at 75 that was triggered this week, putting our position offside by 7%. The key driver of GSR price action over the next few weeks will be silver prices. The next important technical level for silver is the $18-to-$20-per-ounce zone. This has acted as a strong overhead resistance since 2015, which should now provide strong downside support. If silver is able to stabilize around this level, it will indicate that the precious metals bull market remains intact. We eventually expect the GSR to drop toward 50. The Signal From Fixed-Income Markets The fixed-income market is a very powerful sentiment barometer for the dollar. Both cross-border flows and global allocation to FX reserves provide important information about investor preferences for the dollar. Below, we go through the indicators that we track frequently and which constitute an integral part of our framework. The bond-to-gold ratio is an important signal for the dollar, since both US Treasurys and gold are competing assets. Chart I-12Gold And Treasurys Are Competing Assets Gold And Treasurys Are Competing Assets Gold And Treasurys Are Competing Assets The bond-to-gold ratio is an important signal for the dollar, since both US Treasurys and gold are safe-haven assets and thus, by definition are competing assets (Chart I-12). As the Fed continues to increase the supply of bonds, the ratio of the US bond ETF (TLT)-to-gold (GLD) will be an important proxy for investor sentiment on the dollar (Chart I-13). For now, the ratio is sitting on the key 0.94 support zone. Remarkably, the ratio of the total return in US government bonds-to-gold prices has tracked the dollar pretty well since the end of the Bretton Woods system in the early ‘70s (Chart I-14). This makes it both a good short-term and long-term barometer. Chart I-13Watch The Bond-To-Gold Ratio Watch The Bond-To-Gold Ratio Watch The Bond-To-Gold Ratio Chart I-14Competing Assets And The Dollar Competing Assets And The Dollar Competing Assets And The Dollar Inflows into US government bonds are falling sharply, while those into gold are rising sharply (Chart I-15). With interest rates near zero and real rates deeply negative, this pattern is likely to continue in the near future. This should pressure the bond-to-gold ratio lower.   It is remarkable that in recent days investors have begun pricing even more negative real rates in the US compared to other G10 countries (Chart I-16). Again, should this materialize, this will send gold prices higher and cause further erosion in foreign bond purchases. Chart I-15Gold And USD Inflows Diverge Gold And USD Inflows Diverge Gold And USD Inflows Diverge Gold And USD Inflows Diverge Gold And USD Inflows Diverge Chart I-16Real Rate Expectations Are Relapsing Real Rate Expectations Are Relapsing Real Rate Expectations Are Relapsing Overall, the signal from fixed-income markets remain US dollar bearish.  The Signal From Equity Markets Equity market indicators continue to flag that the rally in the dollar has a bit further to go, but should remain a counter-trend bounce.  Currencies tend to move in sync with the relative performance of their equity bourses.  Chart I-17Cyclicals Have Outperformed Defensives Cyclicals Have Outperformed Defensives Cyclicals Have Outperformed Defensives Cyclical stocks have been underperforming defensive ones of late, but the pattern of higher lows in place since the March bottom continues to persist (Chart I-17). The dollar tends to weaken when cyclical stocks are outperforming defensive ones. This is because non-US equity markets have a much higher concentration of cyclical stocks in their bourses. Thus, whenever cyclical sectors are outperforming defensives, it is a clear sign that the marginal dollar is rotating outside of the US. Correspondingly, currencies tend to move in sync with the relative performance of their equity bourses (Chart I-18A and I-18B). So far, non-US equity markets have relapsed relative to the US, but are not yet breaking down. Earnings revisions continue to head higher across all markets. Bottom-up analysts are usually too optimistic about the level of earnings, but are generally spot on about their direction. That said, higher earnings revisions have been concentrated in the US so far, and will need to improve in other markets for the dollar bear market to resume (Chart I-19). Chart I-18ACurrencies Follow Relative Equity Performance Currencies Follow Relative Equity Performance Currencies Follow Relative Equity Performance Chart I-18BCurrencies Follow Relative Equity Performance Currencies Follow Relative Equity Performance Currencies Follow Relative Equity Performance Chart I-19V-Shape Recoveries In Earnings Revisions V-Shape Recoveries In Earnings Revisions V-Shape Recoveries In Earnings Revisions In a nutshell, corrections in equity markets are usually a healthy reset for the bull market to resume, but the character of this particular selloff is worth monitoring. Cyclical and value stocks that are already at historically bombed-out levels have started to underperform. This is usually dollar bullish. Whether the correction ensues or the bull market resumes, it will require a change in equity market leadership from defensives to cyclicals for the dollar bear market to resume. Investment Implications It is very difficult to gauge whether the current market shakeout will last just a few more weeks or continue into year-end. Given such a lack of clarity, our strategy is as follows: Stay long safe-haven currencies. Our preferred vehicle is the Japanese yen, which sports an attractive real rate relative to the US. Focus on relative value at the crosses rather than outright dollar bets. We are short the NZD/CAD and EUR/GBP as a play on relative fundamentals. Stick with them. We already have limit orders on a few currencies, and are adding the Nordic currency basket to this list if it drops another 2%. We initially took profits on this trade last week, when our stop loss was triggered. As Scandinavian currencies continue to fall, they are becoming more compelling buys. Chart I-20Place Stops On Short GSR At 85 Place Stops On Short GSR At 85 Place Stops On Short GSR At 85 We have been long petrocurrencies versus the euro, and the drop in the EUR/USD has helped hedge that trade against market volatility. That said our stop-loss of -5% was triggered amid market volatility. We are reinstating this trade today, and will be looking to rotate into USD shorts once there is more clarity on the economic front. Our short gold/long silver trade was triggered at 75, putting the position offside. For risk management purposes, we are implementing a tight stop at 85 (Chart I-20).   Chester Ntonifor Foreign Exchange Strategist chestern@bcaresearch.com Currencies US Dollar Chart II-1USD Technicals 1 USD Technicals 1 USD Technicals 1 Chart II-2USD Technicals 2 USD Technicals 2 USD Technicals 2 Recent data from the US have been mixed: The current account deficit widened from $111.5 billion to $170.5 billion in Q2. The preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI increased from 53.1 to 53.5 in September while the services PMI declined from 55 to 54.6. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased from 74.1 to 78.9 in September. Existing home sales increased by 2.4% month-on-month in August. Initial jobless claims increased by 840K for the week ending on September 19. The DXY index appreciated by 1.8% this week amid an equity market correction. While the risk-off sentiment provides a positive backdrop for the US dollar, rising twin deficits and unfavorable real rates both suggest a weaker dollar in the long term. Meanwhile, any incoming positive news on the vaccine will support cyclical currencies against the US dollar.   Report Links: Addressing Client Questions - September 4, 2020 A Simple Framework For Currencies - July 17, 2020 DXY: False Breakdown Or Cyclical Bear Market? - June 5, 2020   The Euro Chart II-3EUR Technicals 1 EUR Technicals 1 EUR Technicals 1 Chart II-4EUR Technicals 2 EUR Technicals 2 EUR Technicals 2 Recent data from the euro area have been mostly generally constructive: The current account surplus narrowed from €20.7 billion to €16.6 billion on a seasonally-adjusted basis in July. While the preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI increased from 51.7 to 53.7 in September, the services PMI dropped from 50.5 to 47.6. Consumer confidence marginally increased from -14.7 to -13.9 in September. The German Ifo Business Climate index rose to 93.4 in September. The expectations component has broken above pre-pandemic levels. The euro declined by 1.6% this week against the US dollar. The ECB Economic Bulletin released this Thursday warned that the unemployment rate will continue to rise in the euro area as current figures are skewed by job subsides. The ECB also sees little upside in demand for consumer goods and repeated that it is ready to further adjust its policies to support the economy and boost inflation.   Report Links: Addressing Client Questions - September 4, 2020 On The DXY Breakout, Euro, And Swiss Franc - February 21, 2020 Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019   The Yen Chart II-5JPY Technicals 1 JPY Technicals 1 JPY Technicals 1 Chart II-6JPY Technicals 2 JPY Technicals 2 JPY Technicals 2 Recent data from Japan have been positive: The manufacturing PMI was largely unchanged at 47.3 in September. The services PMI ticked up from 45 to 45.6. The All Industry Activity Index increased by 1.3% month-on-month in July. The Japanese yen depreciated by 1% against the US dollar this week. The latest BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes released on Thursday expects economic activity to pick up in the second half of 2020 through pent-up demand and supported by accommodative monetary policies, but it also warned about a slower recovery in the event of an upturn in COVID cases. Moreover, the Minutes said that core inflation is likely to be negative in Japan for now. Japan’s higher real rates make the yen an attractive safe-haven hedge.   Report Links: The Near-Term Bull Case For The Dollar - February 28, 2020 Building A Protector Currency Portfolio - February 7, 2020 Currency Market Signals From Gold, Equities And Flows - January 31, 2020   British Pound Chart II-7GBP Technicals 1 GBP Technicals 1 GBP Technicals 1 Chart II-8GBP Technicals 2 GBP Technicals 2 GBP Technicals 2 Recent data from the UK have been mixed: The Markit Manufacturing PMI declined from 55.2 to 54.3 in September. The services PMI also dropped from 58.8 to 55.1. Retail sales increased by 2.8% year-on-year in August. House prices increased by 5% year-on-year in September. The British pound plunged by 1.9% against the US dollar this week amid broad USD strength. Besides global synchronized risks, the internal risk from Brexit uncertainties still poses a big threat to the British pound. That said, the pound is still undervalued at current levels and its year-to-date performance lags behind those of other risky G10 currencies. The pound is poised to rebound with positive vaccine and Brexit news.   Report Links: Revisiting Our High-Conviction Trades - September 11, 2020 Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019 A Few Trade Ideas - Sept. 27, 2019   Australian Dollar Chart II-9AUD Technicals 1 AUD Technicals 1 AUD Technicals 1 Chart II-10AUD Technicals 2 AUD Technicals 2 AUD Technicals 2 Recent data from Australia have been mostly positive: The manufacturing PMI increased from 53.6 to 55.5 in September. The services PMI also ticked up from 49 to 50. The ANZ Consumer Confidence index increased from 92.4 to 93.5 for the week ending on September 20. Retail sales declined by 4.2% month-on-month in August. The Australian dollar dropped by 4% against the US dollar this week, only slightly above the pre-crisis level. We continue to favor the Australian dollar due to lower domestic COVID cases and effective measures for containing the virus. Moreover, China’s data continues to surprise to the upside, which bodes well for the Australian dollar.    Report Links: An Update On The Australian Dollar - September 18, 2020 On AUD And CNY - January 17, 2020 Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019   New Zealand Dollar Chart II-11NZD Technicals 1 NZD Technicals 1 NZD Technicals 1 Chart II-12NZD Technicals 2 NZD Technicals 2 NZD Technicals 2 Recent data from New Zealand have been negative: Exports declined from NZ$5 billion to NZ$4.4 billion in August, while imports increased from NZ$4.6 billion to NZ$4.8 billion. The trade balance shifted from a positive NZ$447 million to a deficit of NZ$353 million. The New Zealand dollar plunged by 3.8% against the US dollar this week. On Wednesday, the RBNZ held its interest rate at 0.25%, but warned that the economy needs further support and implied further easing. The rising possibility of negative interest rates in New Zealand would hurt the kiwi especially against the Aussie dollar. Moreover, New Zealand’s services trade surplus evaporated as tourism continues to suffer. We will go long AUD/NZD at 1.05.   Report Links: Currencies And The Value-Versus-Growth Debate - July 10, 2020 Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019 Place A Limit Sell On DXY At 100 - November 15, 2019   Canadian Dollar Chart II-13CAD Technicals 1 CAD Technicals 1 CAD Technicals 1 Chart II-14CAD Technicals 2 CAD Technicals 2 CAD Technicals 2 Recent data from Canada have been positive: Retail sales increased by 1.1% month-on-month in August. New housing prices increased by 2.1% year-on-year in August. Bloomberg Nanos Confidence edged up from 52.9 to 53.1 for the week ending on September 18. The Canadian dollar fell by 1.2% against the US dollar this week. Both retail sales and the housing market have been quite resilient so far, providing support for the Canadian dollar. We are long the Canadian dollar against the New Zealand dollar. Stay with it.   Report Links: Currencies And The Value-Versus-Growth Debate - July 10, 2020 More On Competitive Devaluations, The CAD And The SEK - May 1, 2020 A New Paradigm For Petrocurrencies - April 10, 2020   Swiss Franc Chart II-15CHF Technicals 1 CHF Technicals 1 CHF Technicals 1 Chart II-16CHF Technicals 2 CHF Technicals 2 CHF Technicals 2 There have been scant data from Switzerland this week: Total sight deposit declined from CHF 704.1 billion to CHF 703.9 billion for the week ending on September 18. The Swiss franc fell by 1.4% against the US dollar this week. On Thursday, the SNB kept its interest rate unchanged at -0.75% and warned of a longer coronavirus impact on economic activity. We like the Swiss franc as a safe-haven hedge especially during a second COVID-19 wave. Moreover, if the October US Treasury Report lists Switzerland as a currency manipulator, it will limit downward pressure on the Swiss franc against the US dollar.     Report Links: On The DXY Breakout, Euro, And Swiss Franc - February 21, 2020 Currency Market Signals From Gold, Equities And Flows - January 31, 2020 Portfolio Tweaks Before The Chinese New Year - January 24, 2020   Norwegian Krone Chart II-17NOK Technicals 1 NOK Technicals 1 NOK Technicals 1 Chart II-18NOK Technicals 2 NOK Technicals 2 NOK Technicals 2 There is no significant data from Norway this week. The Norwegian krone dropped by 2.8% against the US dollar this week. The Norges Bank held its key policy interest rate on hold at a record low 0% on Thursday, as widely expected, and said no rate hike is likely within two years. That said, with core inflation at 3.7% year-on-year in August, it’s unlikely that the Norges Bank will further lower rates into negative territory. Our NOK/USD and NOK/EUR trades from the long Nordic basket were stopped out last week with profits of 18.4% and 9.5%, respectively. We continue to like the Norwegian krone in the long term.   Report Links: Revisiting Our High-Conviction Trades - September 11, 2020 A New Paradigm For Petrocurrencies - April 10, 2020 Building A Protector Currency Portfolio - February 7, 2020 ​​​​​​​ Swedish Krona Chart II-19SEK Technicals 1 SEK Technicals 1 SEK Technicals 1 Chart II-20SEK Technicals 2 SEK Technicals 2 SEK Technicals 2 There is no significant data from Sweden this week. The Swedish krona fell by 3.2% against the US dollar this week. On Tuesday, the Riksbank kept its interest rate unchanged at 0% and implied that the rate will likely remain unchanged at least through late 2023. However, the Bank is also ready to further lower the repo rate if necessary. The Swedish krona remains one of our favorite procyclical currencies among the G10 universe supported by its cheap valuation.   Kelly Zhong Research Analyst   Report Links: Revisiting Our High-Conviction Trades - September 11, 2020 Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019 Where To Next For The US Dollar? - June 7, 2019 ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Footnotes Trades & Forecasts Forecast Summary Core Portfolio Tactical Trades Limit Orders Closed Trades

Highlights We remain bearish on the US dollar over the next 12 months. The best vehicle to express this view continues to be the Scandinavian currencies (NOK and SEK). Precious metals remain a buy so long as the dollar faces downside. However, we remain more bullish on silver than gold. Go short the gold/silver ratio (GSR) again at 75. At the crosses, our favorite trade is short NZD against other cyclical currency pairs. These include the CAD, AUD, and SEK. Sterling is selling off as we anticipated, but our timing was offside. That said, the pound is cheap. We will go long cable if it falls below 1.25. Short EUR/GBP at current levels. The Swiss franc will continue to appreciate versus the USD, but will lag behind the euro. EUR/CHF will touch 1.15. We prefer the JPY to the CHF as a currency portfolio hedge. We argued last week that Prime Minster Shinzo Abe’s resignation does not change the yen’s outlook. Feature Our trade basket this year has been centered on a dollar-bearish theme. Since the top in the DXY index on March 19th, we have been expressing this view via various vehicles, most of which have been very profitable. Our favorites have been the Scandinavian currencies, silver, and the AUD, either at the crosses or against the US dollar. So far, these are among the best-performing trades in the G10 currency world (Chart I-1). Chart I-1A Currency Report Card Revisiting Our High-Conviction Trades Revisiting Our High-Conviction Trades Going into the final leg of 2020, the key question is which currency pairs will provide the most upside. In this report, we revisit the rationale behind our high-conviction trades. The Case For Scandinavian Currencies A review of Q2 GDP across the G10 reveals which countries have been doing relatively better during the pandemic. Norway emerges as the economy that had the best quarter-on-quarter annualized growth (Chart I-2). Swedish growth held up very well in Q1 and even the drop in Q2 still puts it well ahead of the US, the euro area, and the UK. As small, open economies which are very sensitive to global growth conditions, this is a very impressive feat for Sweden and Norway. Part of the reason for this is that over the years, the drop in their currencies, both against the US dollar and euro, has made them very competitive. Chart I-2A Currency Report Card A Currency Report Card A Currency Report Card Norway benefited from a few things during the pandemic. First, as a major oil exporter, the sharp fall in the NOK helped cushion the domestic economy against the crash in crude prices. Second, the handling of the pandemic was swift and rigorous, and this has almost completely purged the number of new infections in Norway. Third, aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus (zero rates, quantitative easing, and the first budget deficit in 40 years) has set the economy on a recovery path. As a result, consumption is rebounding smartly and the Norges Bank expects mainland GDP to touch pre-crisis levels by 2023. Already, real retail sales have exploded higher (Chart I-3). Should global growth continue to rebound, a reversal in pessimism towards energy stocks (and value stocks in general) could see investors reprice the Norwegian stock market (and krone) sharply higher (Chart I-4). Chart I-3Norwegian Consumption Has##br##Recovered Norwegian Consumption Has Recovered Norwegian Consumption Has Recovered Chart I-4A Bounce In Oil & Gas Stocks Will Help The Krone A Bounce In Oil & Gas Stocks Will Help The Krone A Bounce In Oil & Gas Stocks Will Help The Krone In the case of Sweden, the sharp rebound in the manufacturing PMI also suggests the industrial base is recovering. This will also coincide with a solid bounce in exports, cementing Sweden’s rise in relative competitiveness and its exit from the pandemic-induced recession (Chart I-5). The Riksbank’s resource utilization indicator has stabilized, suggesting deflationary pressures are abating. Meanwhile, home prices are on the cusp of a recovery, which should help boost consumer confidence and support consumption. With our models showing the Swedish krona as undervalued by 19% versus the USD, there is much room for currency appreciation before financial conditions tighten significantly. Should global growth continue to rebound, a reversal in pessimism towards energy stocks could see investors reprice the Norwegian stock market (and krone) sharply higher. The bottom line is that both Norway and Sweden are well poised to benefit from a global economic recovery, with much undervalued currencies that will bolster their basic balances. We expect both the SEK and NOK to be the best performers versus the USD in the coming year (Chart I-6).  Chart I-5The Swedish Economy Is On The Mend The Swedish Economy Is On The Mend The Swedish Economy Is On The Mend Chart I-6The Scandinavian Currencies Remain Cheap The Scandinavian Currencies Remain Cheap The Scandinavian Currencies Remain Cheap Stay Long Precious Metals, Especially Silver In a world of ample liquidity and a falling US dollar, gold and precious metals are bound to benefit. This is especially the case on the back of a central bank that is trying to asymmetrically generate inflation. Gold has a long-standing relationship with negative interest rates, though the correlation has shifted over time. The intuition behind falling real rates and rising gold prices is that low rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-income-generating assets such as gold. But more importantly, the correlation is between the rise in gold prices and the level of real interest rates, meaning as long as the latter stays negative, it is sufficient to sustain the gold bull market (Chart I-7). Gold tends to be a “Giffen good,” meaning demand increases as prices rise. This can be seen in the tight correlation between our financial demand indicator (proxied by open futures interest on the Comex and ETF holdings, Chart I-8) and gold prices. The conclusion is that, just like the US dollar, gold tends to be a momentum asset, where higher prices beget more demand – at least until the catalyst of easy money and negative rates vanishes Chart I-7Gold Prices And Real Yields Gold Prices And Real Yields Gold Prices And Real Yields Chart I-8Gold Is A Giffen Good Gold Is A Giffen Good Gold Is A Giffen Good There is reason to believe that the bull market in gold might be sustained for longer this time around. The reason is that central banks have become important (and price-insensitive) buyers. Foreign central banks have been amassing almost all of the gold annual output in recent years. It is remarkable that for most of the dollar bull market this past decade, the world’s major central banks (and biggest holders of US Treasurys) have seen rather stable exchange rates relative to the gold price (Chart I-9). This suggests that gold price risks could be asymmetric to the upside. A fall in prices encourages accumulation by EM central banks as a way to diversify out of their dollar reserves, while a rise in prices encourages financial demand and boosts the value of gold foreign exchange reserves. While we like gold, more value can be found in silver (and even platinum) prices, which have lagged the run up in gold. While we like gold, more value can be found in silver (and even platinum) prices, which have lagged the run up in gold. During precious metals bull markets, prices tend to move in sequence, starting with gold, then silver. Meanwhile, the gold/silver ratio (GSR) tends to track the US dollar (Chart I-10), since silver tends to rise and fall more explosively than gold. Part of the reason is that the silver market is thinner and more volatile. Silver’s rising industrial use has also led to competition with investment demand in recent years. Chart I-9Central Banks Will Put A Floor Under Gold Prices Central Banks Will Put A Floor Under Gold Prices Central Banks Will Put A Floor Under Gold Prices Chart I-10Silver Should Outperform Gold As The Dollar Falls Silver Should Outperform Gold As The Dollar Falls Silver Should Outperform Gold As The Dollar Falls The next important technical level for silver will be the 2012 highs near $35/oz. After this, silver could take out its 2011 highs that were close to $50/oz, just as gold did. Globally, the world produces much more gold than silver, with a supply ratio that is 7:1. Meanwhile, the price ratio between gold and silver is near 70:1. Back in the 1800s, Isaac Newton concluded that the appropriate ratio was 15.5:1. We initially shorted the GSR at 100 and eventually took 25% profits when our rolling stop was triggered. We recommend putting a limit sell at 75. More speculative investors can buy silver outright. Stay Short NZD At The Crosses, Especially Versus The CAD Chart I-11Stay Long CAD/NZD Stay Long CAD/NZD Stay Long CAD/NZD In our currency portfolio, trades at the crosses are equally important as versus the USD in terms of adding alpha. Over the past year, we have successfully been playing the short side of the kiwi trade. We closed our long SEK/NZD trade for a profit of 7.8% on March 20, and our long AUD/NZD trade for a profit of 5.2% on June 26. Today, we remain bullish on the CAD/NZD as an exploitable trading opportunity. First, the New Zealand stock market is the most defensive in the G10, while Canadian bourses are heavy in cyclical stocks. Should value start to outperform growth, this will favor the CAD/NZD cross. Second, immigration was an important source of labor for New Zealand, and COVID-19 has eaten into this dividend for the economy. As such, the neutral rate of interest is bound to head lower. And finally, in the commodity space, our bias is that energy will fare better than agriculture, boosting Canada’s relative terms of trade. At the Bank of Canada’s meeting this past Wednesday, the tone was slightly optimistic as it kept rates on hold. Recent data has been rather strong in Canada, especially in housing and goods consumption. This allows for the possibility of the BoC tapering asset purchases faster than the market expects, as argued by my colleague Mathieu Savary. This arbitrage is already being reflected in real interest rates, where they offer a premium of 180 basis points in Canada relative to New Zealand (Chart I-11). What To Do About Sterling? Trade negotiations between the UK and EU are once again hitting a brick wall. The key issue is around Northern Ireland. Ireland wants to remain bound to the EU’s customs and trade regime. The UK is seeking an amendment to be able to intervene, if there is “inconsistency or incompatibility with international or domestic law.” In short, it allows for UK discretion in the movement of goods to and from Northern Ireland, as well as state aid to Northern Ireland. The EU argues this is a clear breach of the treaty agreed to last year.    We remain bullish on the CAD/NZD as an exploitable trading opportunity. As negotiations go on, our base case is that a deal will eventually be reached. This is because neither side wants the worst-case scenario, namely, a no-deal Brexit. Should no deal be reached, the sharp rise in the trade-weighted euro will be exacerbated by a drop in the pound. This is deflationary for the euro area. And while the drop in the pound could be beneficial to the UK in the longer term, it will be very destabilizing since the UK is highly dependent on capital flows. Our roadmap for sterling is as follows: Historically, odds of a “hard” Brexit have usually been associated with cable near 1.20. This occurred after the UK referendum in 2016 and after Prime Minister Boris Johnson was elected with a mandate to take the UK out of the EU (Chart I-12). Intuitively, this suggests that maximum pessimism on the pound, driven by Brexit fears, pins cable at around 1.20. A “weak” deal cobbled together at the eleventh hour will still benefit cable. Depending on the details, 1.35-1.40 for cable will be within striking distance. In the case where both the UK and EU come to a “perfect” agreement, the pound could be 20%-25% higher. The real effective exchange rate for the pound is now lower than where it was after the UK exited the ERM in 1992, with a drawdown that has been similar in size. A good deal should cause the pound to overshoot the mid-point of its historical real effective exchange rate range (Chart I-13). Chart I-12GBP Has Historically Bottomed At 1.20 GBP Has Historically Bottomed At 1.20 GBP Has Historically Bottomed At 1.20 Chart I-13The Pound Is Cheap The Pound Is Cheap The Pound Is Cheap The pound is also cheap versus the euro, and we expect the EUR/GBP to start facing significant headwinds near 0.92. It is remarkable that UK data continues to outperform both the US and euro area (Chart I-14). As such, cable should be bought on weakness. Tactically, we would be buyers of the pound in the 1.24-1.25 zone, and our limit sell on EUR/GBP was triggered yesterday at 0.92.   Chart I-14The UK Economy Is Improving The UK Economy Is Improving The UK Economy Is Improving Thoughts On The ECB The main takeaways from the European Central Bank (ECB) conference were threefold. First, data in the euro area was better than the ECB expected. Second, the ECB did not give any hints on its policy review or extend forward guidance. Keeping policy easy until inflation is up to, but still below, 2% appears more hawkish than the Federal Reserve, which is now trying to asymmetrically generate inflation. And finally, the ECB said they are monitoring the exchange rate, but fell short of providing any hints that they will actively lean against the currency. The euro took off, both against the dollar and other European currencies. We outlined in last week’s report why we do not believe the euro can fall much from current levels. These include the common currency being cheap and having a large share of exports in the eurozone. A Few Words On The CHF Finally, a few clients have asked what happens to the Swiss franc in an environment where the euro is rising (and the dollar is falling). Our bias is that the Swiss National Bank lets a rising EUR/CHF ease financial conditions in Switzerland, and even leans into it. The Swiss National Bank has been stepping up its pace of intervention since EUR/CHF touched 1.05 this year and will continue to do so (Chart I-15). Unfortunately, there is not much it can do about a falling USD/CHF. This suggests the franc will fall against the euro, but not so much against the dollar. In a world where global yields eventually converge to zero, holding the Swiss franc is an attractive hedge. Chart I-15USD Weakness Will Be A Headache For The SNB USD Weakness Will Be A Headache For The SNB USD Weakness Will Be A Headache For The SNB   Chester Ntonifor Foreign Exchange Strategist chestern@bcaresearch.com Currencies U.S. Dollar Chart II-1USD Technicals 1 USD Technicals 1 USD Technicals 1 Chart II-2USD Technicals 2 USD Technicals 2 USD Technicals 2 Recent data from the US have been positive: On the labor market front, nonfarm payrolls fell to 1371K from 1734K in August. The average hourly earnings increased by 4.7% year-on-year. The unemployment rate declined from 10.2% to 8.4%. Initial jobless claims increased by 884K for the week ending on September 4th.  Finally, the NFIB business optimism index increased from 98.8 to 100.2 in August. The DXY index initially rose to a 4-week high of 93.6 earlier this week with positive data releases, then fell back to 93. Our bias is that while the dollar has been rebounding since the beginning of the month, the rally could prove to be a healthy counter-trend move in the long-term dollar bear market. Report Links: Addressing Client Questions - September 4, 2020 A Simple Framework For Currencies - July 17, 2020 DXY: False Breakdown Or Cyclical Bear Market? - June 5, 2020 The Euro Chart II-3EUR Technicals 1 EUR Technicals 1 EUR Technicals 1 Chart II-4EUR Technicals 2 EUR Technicals 2 EUR Technicals 2 Recent data from the euro area have been mixed: The Sentix investor confidence increased from -13.4 to -8 in September. GDP plunged by 11.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, or 14.7% year-on-year.  The euro declined by 0.5% against the US dollar this week. The ECB decided to keep its interest rate and PEPP program unchanged on this Thursday. President Christine Lagarde sounded quite hawkish in the press conference, saying that incoming data since the last monetary policy meeting suggest “a strong rebound in activity broadly in line with previous expectations.” We continue to favor the euro against the US dollar. Report Links: Addressing Client Questions - September 4, 2020 On The DXY Breakout, Euro, And Swiss Franc - February 21, 2020 Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019 Japanese Yen Chart II-5JPY Technicals 1 JPY Technicals 1 JPY Technicals 1 Chart II-6JPY Technicals 2 JPY Technicals 2 JPY Technicals 2 Recent data from Japan have been mixed: The coincident index increased from 74.4 to 76.2 in July. The leading economic index also climbed up from 83.8 to 86.9 in July. The current account balance widened from ¥167 billion to ¥1,468 billion in July. GDP plunged by 7.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, or 28.1% on an annualized basis. Preliminary machine tool orders continued to fall by 23.3% year-on-year in August. Overall household spending contracted by 7.6% year-on-year in July. The Japanese yen appreciated by 0.2% against the US dollar this week. The expansion in Japan’s current account balance is mainly driven by the decline in domestic demand. Exports fell by 19.2% year-on-year in July while imports slumped at a faster pace by 22.3%. This suggests that deflationary forces are returning to Japan, which will boost real rates and buffet the yen. Report Links: The Near-Term Bull Case For The Dollar - February 28, 2020 Building A Protector Currency Portfolio - February 7, 2020 Currency Market Signals From Gold, Equities And Flows - January 31, 2020 British Pound Chart II-7GBP Technicals 1 GBP Technicals 1 GBP Technicals 1 Chart II-8GBP Technicals 2 GBP Technicals 2 GBP Technicals 2 Recent data from the UK have been mostly positive: Retail sales continued to increase, rising by 4.7% year-on-year in August, following a 4.3% increase the previous month. Halifax house prices increased by 5.2% year-on-year for the 3 months to August. The Markit construction PMI declined from 58.1 to 54.6 in August. The British pound extended its sell-off this week, depreciating by 2.5% against the US dollar, making it the worst-performing G10 currency. Under ongoing trade negotiations, the possibility of a no-deal Brexit is now putting more downward pressure on the pound after the summer rally. Report Links: Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019 A Few Trade Ideas - Sept. 27, 2019 United Kingdom: Cyclical Slowdown Or Structural Malaise? - Sept. 20, 2019 Australian Dollar Chart II-9AUD Technicals 1 AUD Technicals 1 AUD Technicals 1 Chart II-10AUD Technicals 2 AUD Technicals 2 AUD Technicals 2 Recent data from Australia have been mixed: The AiG services performance index fell from 44 to 42.5 in August. The NAB business confidence increased from -14 to -8 in August while the business conditions index fell from 0 to -6. The Australian dollar appreciated by 0.4% against the US dollar this week. Spending fell sharply during the pandemic, pushing Australia’s savings rate to 19.8% from 6%. Until consumer spending returns in earnest, the RBA is unlikely to raise rates, which puts a cap on how far the AUD can rise. The good news is that household balance sheets are being mended, which reduces macroeconomic risk. Report Links: On AUD And CNY - January 17, 2020 Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019 A Contrarian View On The Australian Dollar - May 24, 2019 New Zealand Dollar Chart II-11NZD Technicals 1 NZD Technicals 1 NZD Technicals 1 Chart II-12NZD Technicals 2 NZD Technicals 2 NZD Technicals 2 Recent data from New Zealand have been mixed: Manufacturing sales plunged by 12.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q2. The preliminary ANZ business confidence index increased from -41.8% to -26% in September. The ANZ activity outlook index also ticked up from -17.5% to -9.9%. The New Zealand dollar fell initially against the US dollar, then recovered, returning flat this week. The ANZ New Zealand Business Outlook shows that most activity indicators have increased to the highest levels since the beginning of the pandemic but are still well below pre-COVID-19 levels. We like the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar but believe that it will underperform against other pro-cyclical currencies including the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. Report Links: Currencies And The Value-Versus-Growth Debate - July 10, 2020 Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019 Place A Limit Sell On DXY At 100 - November 15, 2019 Canadian Dollar Chart II-13CAD Technicals 1 CAD Technicals 1 CAD Technicals 1 Chart II-14CAD Technicals 2 CAD Technicals 2 CAD Technicals 2 Recent data from Canada have been positive: On the labor market front, the unemployment rate declined from 10.9% to 10.2% in August. The participation rate increased from 64.3% to 64.6%. Average hourly wages surged by 6% year-on-year in August. Housing starts increased by 6.9% month-on-month to 262.4K in August, the highest reading since 2007. The Canadian dollar depreciated by 0.3% against the US dollar this week. The Bank of Canada maintained its target rate at 0.25% on Wednesday. It is also continuing large-scale asset purchases of at least C$5 billion per week of government bonds. Moreover, the Bank suggested that the bounce-back in activity in Q3 was better than expected, which bodes well for the loonie. Report Links: Currencies And The Value-Versus-Growth Debate - July 10, 2020 More On Competitive Devaluations, The CAD And The SEK - May 1, 2020 A New Paradigm For Petrocurrencies - April 10, 2020 Swiss Franc Chart II-15CHF Technicals 1 CHF Technicals 1 CHF Technicals 1 Chart II-16CHF Technicals 2 CHF Technicals 2 CHF Technicals 2 Recent data from Switzerland have been mixed: FX reserves continued to increase from CHF 847 billion to CHF 848 billion in August. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.4% in August. The Swiss franc appreciated by 1% against the US dollar this week. The SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said that “stronger currency market interventions relieve over-valuation pressure on the Swiss franc and protect the Swiss economy”. Recent dollar weakness could be another headache for the SNB, accelerating SNB’s currency intervention. While we like the franc as a safe-haven hedge with high real rates, the upside potential is likely to be more gradual as the SNB leans against it. Report Links: On The DXY Breakout, Euro, And Swiss Franc - February 21, 2020 Currency Market Signals From Gold, Equities And Flows - January 31, 2020 Portfolio Tweaks Before The Chinese New Year - January 24, 2020 Norwegian Krone Chart II-17NOK Technicals 1 NOK Technicals 1 NOK Technicals 1 Chart II-18NOK Technicals 2 NOK Technicals 2 NOK Technicals 2 Recent data from Norway have been positive: Manufacturing output increased by 1.8% month-on-month in July. Headline consumer price inflation ticked up from 1.3% to 1.7% year-on-year in August. Core inflation continued rising to 3.7% year-on-year from 3.5% the previous month. The Norwegian krone depreciated by 0.5% against the US dollar this week. The increase in headline inflation was mainly driven by furnishings and household equipment (10%), communications (4.9%) and food (3.7%). However, the Norwegian krone is still tremendously undervalued against the US dollar according to our models. Report Links: A New Paradigm For Petrocurrencies - April 10, 2020 Building A Protector Currency Portfolio - February 7, 2020 On Oil, Growth And The Dollar - January 10, 2020 Swedish Krona Chart II-19SEK Technicals 1 SEK Technicals 1 SEK Technicals 1 Chart II-20SEK Technicals 2 SEK Technicals 2 SEK Technicals 2 Recent data from Sweden have been mostly positive: The current account surplus fell to SEK 63.2 billion in Q2 from SEK 75.5 billion in Q1. However, this compares favorably to a surplus of SEK 34.7 billion the same quarter last year. Manufacturing new orders continued to fall by 6.4% year-on-year in July. This is an improvement compared to the 13.1% contraction the previous month. Headline consumer prices inflation increased from 0.5% to 0.8% year-on-year in August. Core inflation also climbed up from 0.5% to 0.7% year-on-year. The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.5% against the US dollar this week. We continue to favor the Swedish krona amid global economy recovery. Moreover, our PPP model shows that the krona is still undervalued by 19% against the US dollar. Report Links: Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019 Where To Next For The US Dollar? - June 7, 2019 Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - February 15, 2019 Trades & Forecasts Forecast Summary Core Portfolio Tactical Trades Limit Orders Closed Trades

Over the past weeks, we have been cautioning investors not to chase the equity market higher as the risk/reward trade-off at current levels is tilted to the downside. While we maintain a 9-12 month bullish view on the broad market, a short-term correction due to technical and/or (geo)political reasons is likely in the cards. Consequently, patient investors will be rewarded with a compelling entry point likely in the coming months. Below are five reasons, in no particular order, arguing that a playable short-term pullback is in order:  Reason #1: The 200-day Moving Average Moving averages are a perfect tool to put the speed of any rally in perspective and to highlight  extreme investor optimism. Chart 1 shows standardized SPX and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) price ratios with respect to their 200-day moving averages. If we look at the current cycle, whenever both the SPX and NDX crossed above the one standard deviation (std) line, a sizable pullback was quick to follow. While NDX has been well above its 1 std line for some time, last week’s price action finally pushed the SPX into the overstretched column. The implication is that a correction is looming.  Reason 1 Reason 1 Reason 1 Reason #2: Monthly Moving Averages For the second reason, we look at the concept of price deviations from the moving average through a different lens – Bollinger bands (BBs). A traditional (20,2) BB includes a 20-period moving average of the price, as well as 20-period 2-standard standard deviation lines. While it can be plotted on any time frame, we use monthly data as set ups in longer time frames (i.e. monthly) dictate the behavior of the shorter (i.e. daily) time frames. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 together with its (20,2) BBs on a monthly time frame. Whenever the market spikes above the 2 std line, a sizable correction ensues. Currently, the market is squarely above the 2 std line, which has historically been a precursor to a 5-10% drawdown. Reason 2 Five Reasons Not To Chase Equities In the Near-Term Five Reasons Not To Chase Equities In the Near-Term Reason #3: Growth/Value Staying on the topics of extreme rallies, Chart 3 shows the year-over-year growth rate in the S&P growth / S&P value share price ratio. In the entire history of the data, never has it printed a jaw-dropping 34% growth rate, not even after the depths of GFC or to the lead up to the dotcom March 2000 peak. Such a pace is clearly not sustainable and since growth stocks are dominated by FAANG-like companies that have done all of the heavy lifting year-to-date, a reset in the S&P growth / S&P value ratio will weigh on the overall market. A selloff in the bond market will likely serve as a catalyst to boost the allure of beaten down value stocks at the expense of overvalued tech titans.  Reason 3 Reason 3 Reason 3 Reason #4: Options/Volatility Markets Option and related volatility market movements reveal some vulnerabilities in the broad equity market. More specifically, the VIX and the VXN which by construction are inversely correlated with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, respectively, serve as an excellent timing tool. We look at the 20-day moving correlation of those respective variables, and similarly to Reason #1, a reliable sell signal is given once both (VIX, SPX) and (VXN, NDX) 20-day moving correlations shoot into positive territory (Chart 4). While the (VXN, NDX) correlation has been going haywire over the past quarter as likely single stock call option buying has been heavily hedged by NDX put buying, the (VIX, SPX) moving correlation only slingshot higher at the end of last week - finally producing a decisive sell signal. Again, similarly to Reason #2, each sell signal resulted into a sizable correlation in the SPX, warning that a 5-10% pullback – the sixth since the March lows – is inevitable in the coming weeks. Reason 4 Reason 4 Reason 4 Reason #5: Bad Breadth Tech stocks have clearly been the work horse behind this rally pushing markets into uncharted territory in a very short period of time since the March lows. However, and as we highlighted in our previous research, it is only a handful of tech titans that propelled the markets to all-time highs. Overconcentration of returns in just a few tickers is not healthy, and a reset is only a question of time. Chart 5 highlights that today only 64% of NASDAQ Composite stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving average, which stands in marked contrast to the all-time highs in the NASDAQ Composite. Such a divergence is unsustainable and typically gets resolved by a snap back in equity prices. While Chart 5 cannot be used as a precise timing tool, it has been consistently leading the NASDAQ Composite especially at peaks, cautioning that a healthy pullback is forthcoming. Bottom Line: While we maintain a cyclical and structural (see upcoming Weekly Report) bullish stance in the broad equity market, the shorter-term risk/reward trade-off is tilted to the downside, and presents a playable opportunity.  Reason 5 Reason 5 Reason 5

Dear Client, There will be no Weekly Report on August 10, as the US Equity Strategy team will be on vacation for the week. Our regular publication schedule will resume on Monday August 17, 2020 with a Special Report by my colleague Chester Ntonifor, BCA’s Chief FX Strategist on the interplay of the style bias and the US Dollar. We trust that you will find this Report both informative and insightful. Kind Regards, Anastasios Feature Before getting to our analysis on why cyclicals will best defensives, we want to address our definition of cyclicals and defensives, where we think tech stands and why, discuss what our current positioning is and what time horizon we are targeting for this portfolio bent. Cyclicals And Defensives Definition Table 1 is a stripped down version of our current recommendations table and shows that our cyclicals definition is one of deep cyclicals including industrials, materials, energy and the information technology sector. Utilities, consumer staples, health care and telecom services (which is currently categorized as a GICS2) comprise our defensives universe. Table 1US Equity Strategy's Cyclicals Vs. Defensives Current Recommendations Top 10 Reasons To Start Nibbling On Cyclicals At The Expense Of Defensives Top 10 Reasons To Start Nibbling On Cyclicals At The Expense Of Defensives Tech Is Still Cyclical Importantly, we still consider the tech sector a deep cyclical and not a safe haven sector. While the COVID-19 fallout has acted as an accelerant especially to a faster absorption of goods and services of the tech titans, that is not a de facto change in the behavior of these still cyclical stocks.  As a reminder tech stocks have 60% export exposure or 20 percentage points higher than the broad market. The implication is that US tech trends should follow the ebbs and flows of the global economy. Contrary to popular belief that technology equities behaved defensively recently, empirical evidence gives credence to our hypothesis that technology stocks remain cyclical: from the Feb 19 SPX peak until the March trough the IT sector underperformed all four defensive sectors (Chart of the Week). In marked contrast, tech has left in the dust defensive sectors since the March bottom, cementing its cyclical status. Chart of the WeekTech Remains A Cyclical Sector Tech Remains A Cyclical Sector Tech Remains A Cyclical Sector Current Positioning With regard to our broader technology positioning, we are currently neutral the S&P tech sector, overweight the S&P internet retail index (which Amazon dominates) that sits under the S&P consumer discretionary sector and underweight the S&P interactive media & services index (which includes Alphabet and Facebook) that falls under the newly formed S&P communications services sector. Thus, our broadly defined tech sector exposure remains neutral. Meanwhile, last week we boosted the S&P materials sector to overweight and that move pushed our cyclicals/defensives bent marginally to preferring deep cyclicals to defensives (please see market cap weights in Table 1). Timing Is Key This portfolio bent may run into some near-term trouble as we expect a flare up of (geo)political risks (please see here and here), but once the election uncertainty lifts, hopefully in late-November/early-December, from that point onward and on a 9-12 month time horizon cyclicals should really start to flex their muscles versus defensives.  The purpose of this Special Report is to identify the top ten drivers of the looming cyclicals versus defensives outperformance phase on a cyclical time horizon. What follows is one page one chart per key reason, in no particular order of importance. 1.)    Dollar The Reflator Time and again we have highlighted the boost that internationally exposed sectors get from a weakening greenback. Cyclicals are the primary beneficiaries of such a backdrop as a lot of these deep cyclical companies garner over 50% of their sales from abroad. We recently updated in a Special Report the breakdown of GICS1 sectors’ foreign sourced revenues and more importantly their performance during US dollar bear markets. Cyclicals clearly have the upper hand. Chart 1 shows this tight inverse correlation, irrespective of what USD index we use. Finally, looking ahead a falling greenback will act as a relative profit reflator (US dollar shown inverted, bottom panel, Chart 1), especially given that most of the defensive sectors are landlocked in the US and do not get a P&L fillip from positive translation gains. Chart 1CHART 1 CHART 1 CHART 1 2.)    Global Growth Recovery Not only does the debasing of the US dollar bode well for Income Statement (I/S) relative translation gains, but also serves as a tonic to global growth. In other words, a final demand recovery is in the works on the back of a pending virtuous cycle: a depreciating dollar lifts global growth, and an increase in trade brings more US dollars in circulation further weakening the greenback (top panel, Chart 2). Our Global Trade Activity Indicator also corroborates the USD message and underscores a global growth recovery into 2021 (second panel, Chart 2). Tack on the meteoric rise in the G10 economic surprise index (third panel, Chart 2) and factors are falling into place for a synchronized global economic recovery including a V-shaped US rebound from the depths of the recession in Q2 (ISM manufacturing survey shown advanced, bottom panel, Chart 2). Chart 2CHART 2 CHART 2 CHART 2 3.)    US Capex To The Rescue The latest GDP report made for grim reading. US capex collapsed 27% last quarter in line with the fall it suffered in Q1/2009. Not even bulletproof software investment escaped unscathed and contracted for the first time in seven years, albeit modestly. However, if the looming recovery resembles the GFC episode when real non-residential investment soared 40 percentage points from that nadir in the subsequent five quarters, then a slingshot rebound will ensue by the end of 2021. Importantly, our US capex indicator has an excellent track record in leading the relative share price ratio and confirms that a capex trough is already in store, tracing out the bottom hit during the Great Recession (top panel, Chart 3). Regional Fed surveys also signal that a capex boom looms in the coming quarters (middle panel, Chart 3). And, so do cheery CEOs that expect a sizable investment recovery in the next six months, according to the Conference Board survey (bottom panel, Chart 3). All of this is a harbinger of a cyclicals outperformance phase at the expense of defensives. Chart 3CHART 3 CHART 3 CHART 3 4.)   Chinese Capex On The Upswing (Fiscal Easing) Across the pacific, Chinese excavator sales have gone vertical. While we take Chinese data with a grain of salt, Komatsu hydraulic excavator demand growth in China has averaged 45% on a year-over-year basis in the quarter ending in June. This Japanese company’s data, which has been unaffected by the US/Sino trade war, corroborates the Chinese official statistics (top panel, Chart 4). Infrastructure spending is also on the rise in China following an abrupt halt in projects started early in 2020. This revving of the investment spending engine is bullish for the broad commodity complex including US cyclicals (bottom panel, Chart 4). Chart 4CHART 4 CHART 4 CHART 4 5.) Chinese Monetary Easing None of the above investment recovery would have been possible had the Chinese authorities not opened up the liquidity spigots. Monetary easing via the sinking reserve-requirement-ratio (RRR) has been instrumental in engineering an economic rebound (RRR shown inverted, third panel, Chart 5). The credit-easing channel has been also important in funneling cash toward investment, and the climbing Li Keqiang index is evidence that sloshing liquidity is being put to good use (bottom & second panels, Chart 5). Finally, Chinese loan demand data also confirms that an economic recovery is in the offing and heralds a US cyclicals versus defensives portfolio tilt (top panel, Chart 5).  Chart 5CHART 5 CHART 5 CHART 5 6.)   Firming Financial Market Data (Chinese And EM Equity Market Outperformance) Typically, financial market data are early in sniffing out a turn in economic data. This anticipatory nature of financial markets is currently signaling that EM in general and Chinese economic growth in particular will make a significant comeback in the coming quarters. Importantly, Chinese bourses and the MSCI EM equity index (in USD) have recently started to outperform the ACWI and the SPX (Chart 6). Both of these equity markets are more cyclically exposed than the defensive US and global indexes because of the respective sector composition and have paved the way for a sustainable rise in the US cyclicals/defensives share price ratio (Chart 6).   Chart 6CHART 6 CHART 6 CHART 6 7.)    Transition From Deflation To Inflation Similarly to the EM and Chinese equity market outperformance of their DM peers, commodity prices are putting in a bottom and forecasting a brighter global trade backdrop for the rest of the year (top panel, Chart 7). The depreciating US dollar is also underpinning the commodity complex and this should serve as a catalyst for an exit from the recent global disinflationary backdrop, especially corporate wholesale price deflation. Domestically, the prices paid subcomponent of the ISM manufacturing survey is firming and projecting that relative pricing power will favor cyclicals versus defensives (bottom panel, Chart 7). Chart 7CHART 7 CHART 7 CHART 7 8.)   Profit Expectations Have Turned The Corner Sell-side extreme pessimism has given way to mild optimism as depicted by the now positive relative Net Earnings Revisions (NER) ratio (third panel, Chart 8).  Importantly, despite the spike in the relative NER ratio, the bar has not risen enough both on a relative profit growth and revenue growth basis in order to short circuit the recovery in the relative share price ratio (second & bottom panels, Chart 8).  Chart 8CHART 8 CHART 8 CHART 8 9.)   Alluring Valuations The relative Valuation Indicator remains below the neutral zone offering a cushion to investors that are contending to execute a cyclicals versus defensives portfolio bent (Chart 9).   Chart 9CHART 9 CHART 9 CHART 9 10.) Enticing Technicals Lastly, cyclicals are still unloved compared with defensives as our relative Technical Indicator (TI) highlights in Chart 10.  In fact, our relative TI also hovers below the neutral zone, near a level that has marked previous playable recovery rallies (bottom panel, Chart 10). Chart 10CHART 10 CHART 10 CHART 10     But Monitor Three Key Risks Over the coming 12 to 18 months, investors should prepare their portfolios for an outperformance phase of cyclical sectors relative to defensives. Nonetheless, we are closely monitoring a number of key risks that can put our view offside. First, the relentless rise of ex-Vice President Biden in the polls on PREDICTIT, the rapidly increasing probability of a “Blue Sweep” in the upcoming elections, and the non-negligible risk of a contested election (as discussed in a joined Special Report with our sister Geopolitical Strategy service last week), all pose a short-term threat to the benign election backdrop priced into stocks. Were a risk-off phase to materialize in the next three months, as we expect, then cyclicals would take the back seat versus defensives, at least temporarily (bottom panel, Chart 11). Second, what worries us most is that Dr. Copper and crude oil (another global growth barometer), especially compared with gold, have yet to confirm the global growth recovery. In other words, the fleeting oil-to-gold and copper-to-gold ratios underscore that the liquidity-to-growth handoff has gone on hiatus. While we are not ready to throw in the towel yet, these relative commodity signals are disconcerting, and were they to deteriorate further, they would definitely undermine our optimistic view on global growth (top and second panels, Chart 11). Finally, it is disquieting that our relative profit growth models have no pulse. They represent a significant risk to the relative earnings-led rebound which the rest of the indicators we track are anticipating (third panel, Chart 11). Chart 11Three Key Risks We Are Monitoring Three Key Risks We Are Monitoring Three Key Risks We Are Monitoring Bottom Line: On balance, a looming global growth recovery and pending global capex upcycle, a softening US dollar, commodity price inflation and Chinese monetary easing will more than offset the trifecta of rising election-related risks, the current unresponsiveness of our relative profit growth models and the lack of confirmation of a liquidity-to-growth transition. This will pave the way for a cyclicals outperformance phase at the expense of defensives.     Anastasios Avgeriou US Equity Strategist anastasios@bcaresearch.com  

Highlights A clear U-turn in markets could make investors more conscious of losses, making them likely to sell. Hence, the fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) rally could turn into a fear-of-losing-out, or FOLO selloff. The P/E ratio is negatively correlated to the discount rate and the latter is the sum of the risk-free rate and the equity risk premium (ERP). Enormous lingering uncertainty warrants using an ERP that is at the upper end of its historical range.  By using the average equity risk premium in their equity valuation models, investors are underpricing risks that are presently exceptionally high. Several market-based indicators and technical configurations point to a relapse in the global equity rally and renewed US dollar strength. Feature For some time, we have been arguing that the global equity advance since late March can best be described as a fear-of-missing-out, or FOMO, rally. During a FOMO rally, investors are forced to chase share prices higher due to fear of missing out on gains. A clear U-turn in markets and falling share prices could make investors more conscious of losses, and they would likely resort to selling stocks. This will turn the FOMO rally into a fear-of-losing-out, or FOLO, selloff. Marginal investors trade with momentum during both FOMO and FOLO scenarios. This is why we argued in our June 18 note that current investment strategies should be placing more emphasis on momentum than would normally be the case. In a nutshell, if FOMO forces subside, investors – which are facing enormous uncertainty on several fronts – will likely require higher risk premiums to commit money to stocks. For now, the momentum of the equity rally has stalled, but it has not yet reversed (Chart I-1). Our momentum indicator for global share prices is struggling to break above the zero line. In the past, the indicator being above or below zero often differentiated bull versus bear markets, respectively (Chart I-1, bottom panel). Chart I-1Global Share Prices Are Facing An Important Resistance Global Share Prices Are Facing An Important Resistance Global Share Prices Are Facing An Important Resistance In this report, we examine the bullish narrative behind the rally and offer our interpretation of those arguments. Then, we present our assessment of the fundamentals. Finally, we highlight the signs we are looking for to confirm that a major selloff will soon occur. The Bull Case: Climbing A Wall Of Worries? The bull case rests on the thesis that risk assets are climbing a wall of worries, i.e., investors are correct to look through many apparent negatives. The following are the key bullish arguments that have supported the rally: Policymakers around the world will do whatever it takes. The US, China and Europe will continue to augment stimulus to prevent another relapse in economic activity. We have never doubted the willingness of policymakers around the world to provide stimulus to their economies amid the pandemic. Where we have had reservations and questions is in whether policymakers will be capable of limiting the bear market in stocks to only one month amid the pandemic and the worst global recession in decades. There is plenty of cash on the sidelines looking to be invested. We agree with the lots-of-cash-on-the-sidelines thesis. Our measure of US dollar cash that might be deployed in financial assets is illustrated in Chart I-2. It plots the ratio of the US broad money supply to the market value of all US dollar-denominated securities. The US broad money supply represents all US dollars in the world – in cash and in electronic bank deposits. The denominator is the market capitalization of US dollar-denominated stocks and all types of bonds held by non-bank investors. If the market shows resilience and the pandemic situation and corporate profits ameliorate, cash on the sidelines will leak into assets, lifting their prices. The counterargument is as follows: If and when the equity momentum reverses, FOMO will be followed by a FOLO phase. In such a case, investors will sell to avoid losses or protect profits, and cash on the sidelines might not matter for a period of time. The global economy reached a bottom in April-May. We agree that the worst of the contraction in economic activity globally was in April and May, when major economies were in lockdown. Nevertheless, it is also plausible that global share prices could relapse even if the bottom in economic output has already been reached. Interestingly, in the 2001-2002 recession, global stocks made a major new low in late 2002/early 2003 even though global growth bottomed in 2001 (Chart I-3). Chart I-2The US: Broad Money Supply Relative To US Equity And Bond Markets Capitalization The US: Broad Money Supply Relative To US Equity And Bond Markets Capitalization The US: Broad Money Supply Relative To US Equity And Bond Markets Capitalization Chart I-3Global Stocks And The Business Cycle In 2000-2003 Global Stocks And The Business Cycle In 2000-2003 Global Stocks And The Business Cycle In 2000-2003   This recession is different from the perspective of the magnitude of the drop in business activity. Many businesses are still operating below their breakeven points and will likely continue to do so for some time. As such, a marginal increase in the level of activity or slower annual contraction might not be sufficient to enable them to service their debt and resume hiring and business investment. Therefore, the recovery will be stumbling and hesitant and relapses are quite likely, especially in the context of the ongoing pandemic. Finally, one of the pervasive arguments dominating the current investment landscape is that equities are cheap given very low interest rates. Unlike some of our colleagues, we are not in accord with this valuation thesis on global stocks in general and US equities in particular. One consideration that is missing in this argument is the equity risk premium. The P/E ratio is negatively correlated to the discount rate.1 The discount rate is the sum of the risk-free rate and the equity risk premium (ERP). Presently, one should use an ERP that is materially higher than its historical mean (Chart I-4, top panel). Investors are currently facing record-high uncertainty related to the pandemic and the business cycle, as well as the structural trends in the economic, political and geopolitical spheres. This warrants using an ERP that is at the upper end of its historical range. Chart I-4Exceptionally High Uncertainty Warrants A Higher Equity Risk Premium Exceptionally High Uncertainty Warrants A Higher Equity Risk Premium Exceptionally High Uncertainty Warrants A Higher Equity Risk Premium Critically, the ERP is not a static variable. Yet many equity valuation models assume that the ERP is constant, and therefore compare equity multiples with risk-free rates. Such models are wrong-headed because a change in the ERP can in and of itself cause large fluctuations in share prices. The bottom panel of Chart I-4 plots the US ERP and the global policy uncertainty index. The latter is at an all-time high while US ERP is well below its highs. In a nutshell, if FOMO forces subside, investors – which are facing enormous uncertainty on several fronts – will likely require higher risk premiums to commit money to stocks. Bottom Line: By using the average ERP in their equity valuation models, investors are underpricing risks that are presently exceptionally high. Bear Markets (Like Pandemics) Occur In Waves The duration and magnitude of the rally from the late-March lows admittedly has taken us by surprise. Nevertheless, it is hard to believe that the bear market associated with the worst recession and pandemic in a century was confined to only one down leg (albeit a vicious one) and lasted just one month. Just as corrections are inherent parts of bull markets, bear market rallies are an integral part of bear markets. It would be unprecedented if this bear market did not have at least one bear market rally. We do not mean EM or DM share prices will drop to new lows. Our point is that global stocks and EM currencies will likely experience a setback large enough to make investors feel that the bear market is back. Like pandemics, bear markets occur in waves. The timing, duration and magnitude of the second wave of the equity selloff is as impossible to predict as that of the second wave of COVID-19. Just as corrections are inherent parts of bull markets, bear market rallies are an integral part of bear markets. Our fundamental case for a relapse in EM equities and currencies is as follows: First, a downturn in US equities will dampen EM risk assets. The former are vulnerable due to the second wave of the pandemic that is already underway in a considerable portion of the US. Even if the second COVID-19 wave does not produce simultaneous shutdowns across the entire country, rolling lockdowns in parts of the US and lingering general uncertainty will hinder business investment and hiring. This will delay the profit recovery that the market has priced in. Second, global equities have rallied too fast and too far, as evidenced by the unprecedented gap that has opened up between stock prices and forward EPS (Chart I-5). The 12-month forward P/E ratio is 19.5 for global equities, 22.5 for the US and 14 for EM. Rising share prices amid falling projected EPS levels has been one of the key reasons behind our argument that the equity advance of the past three months has been a FOMO rally.  Third, retail participation in this equity rally has been unprecedented. This has been true not only in North America but also in many Asian markets. Specifically, Chart I-6 demonstrates increased retail participation in equity markets in Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia. These are corroborated by numerous media articles such as: Amateur Traders Pile Into Asian Stocks, Making Pros Nervous Small India Investors Are Latest to Snag Beaten-Down Stocks Fear of Missing Historic Rally Has Koreans Borrowing to Invest Retail Investors Are Driving Record Turnover in Thai Stocks Singapore’s Retail Investors Load Up On What Institutions Dump Chart I-5The Global Forward P/E Ratio Is At Its Highest Since 2002 The Global Forward P/E Ratio Is At Its Highest Since 2002 The Global Forward P/E Ratio Is At Its Highest Since 2002 Chart I-6A Stampede By Asian Retail Investors Into Local Equities A Stampede By Asian Retail Investors Into Local Equities A Stampede By Asian Retail Investors Into Local Equities   Chart I-7Oil Inventories Are Rising In The US And OECD Oil Inventories Are Rising In The US And OECD Oil Inventories Are Rising In The US And OECD Retail investors chasing share prices higher is another fact leading us to term this advance as a FOMO rally. If share prices relapse meaningfully, retail investors may well turn from net buyers to net sellers – i.e. FOMO will turn into FOLO. Fourth, oil prices have had a nice run, despite crude inventories in the US and OECD countries continuing to mushroom (Chart I-7). Rising inventories signify that demand remains deficient relative to supply. Hence, the oil price rally can also be qualified as a FOMO rally, driven by investors rather than demand-supply dynamics. Interestingly, global energy stocks have a higher correlation with forward oil prices rather than the spot rate. Both share prices of oil producers and three-year forward oil prices have already rolled over (Chart I-8). Finally, geopolitical tensions between the US and China are set to escalate as President Trump attempts to save his re-election campaign by rallying the nation behind the flag against foreign adversaries. China would certainly respond. As part of China’s response, North Korea will likely be “allowed” by Beijing to test a strategic weapon, undermining President Trump’s foreign policy achievements. The resulting geopolitical uncertainty will further weigh on the confidence of investors in Asian markets. Critically, share prices in north Asia – China, Korea and Taiwan – that account for 60% of the MSCI EM equity benchmark will come under selling pressure. Excluding these three bourses, EM shares prices have already rolled over (Chart I-9). Chart I-8Global Oil Stock Prices Move With Forward Oil Prices Global Oil Stock Prices Move With Forward Oil Prices Global Oil Stock Prices Move With Forward Oil Prices Chart I-9Diverging Equity Performance: North Asia Versus The Rest Of EM Diverging Equity Performance: North Asia Versus The Rest Of EM Diverging Equity Performance: North Asia Versus The Rest Of EM   In short, the key risk to Chinese, Korean and Taiwanese stocks is geopolitics. The rest of the EM universe is suffering from the acute COVID-19 crisis and numerous economic challenges. Bottom Line: The overarching message from our fundamental analysis is that the rally in global and EM share prices has ignored many negatives and is at a risk of a meaningful relapse. Gauging The Second Selling Wave: Technical Observations Chart I-10The US Dollar And VIX Have Not Yet Broken Below Their Supports The US Dollar And VIX Have Not Yet Broken Below Their Supports The US Dollar And VIX Have Not Yet Broken Below Their Supports We constantly monitor numerous market indicators. We highlight below some of the most important ones that we feel are pointing to a second sell-off wave occurring sooner than later. The broad trade-weighted US dollar and the VIX index have not yet entered a bear market (Chart I-10). In fact, it seems they are finding support at their 200-day moving averages and respective horizontal lines - shown on Chart I-10. A rebound in both the trade-weighted dollar and VIX will coincide with an air pocket in global stocks. Our Risk-On/Safe-Haven Currency ratio has rolled over (Chart I-11). It correlates with EM shares prices, and points to a relapse in EM stocks. Chart I-11The Risk-On/Safe-Haven Currency Ratio Heralds A Pullback In EM Stocks The Risk-On/Safe-Haven Currency Ratio Heralds A Pullback In EM Stocks The Risk-On/Safe-Haven Currency Ratio Heralds A Pullback In EM Stocks Finally, credit spreads of riskier parts (CAA rated) of the US high-yield corporate bond universe have commenced widening versus the aggregate US high-yield benchmark. These relative spreads are shown inverted in Chart I-12. Chart I-12US Credit Markets Internals Point To A Relapse In US Small Cap Stocks US Credit Markets Internals Point To A Relapse In US Small Cap Stocks US Credit Markets Internals Point To A Relapse In US Small Cap Stocks Underperformance of riskier parts of the US corporate credit market often coincides with lower US small-cap share prices (Chart I-12). Bottom Line: Several critical market-based indicators and technical configurations point to a relapse in global equities and renewed US dollar strength. The odds of a selloff in EM share prices, currencies and credit markets are considerable. Investment Recommendations In our June 18 report, we contended that a breakout of global share prices and a breakdown in the trade-weighted US dollar would indicate that this rally might persist for a while. Conversely, a drawdown in global equities and a rebound in the greenback could be considerable. Since then, neither global stocks have broken out nor the US dollar broken down. Hence, the jury is still out. At the moment, the risk-reward profile of EM stocks remains unattractive. Within a global equity portfolio, we continue underweighting EM. Within a global credit portfolio, we are neutral on EM sovereign credit versus US corporate credit. The rationale is as follows: the low odds of public debt defaults among mainstream developing countries and the Federal Reserve’s purchases of US corporate bonds has channeled flows to EM credit, possibly precluding relative EM underperformance.  We continue shorting the following basket of EM currencies versus the US dollar: BRL, CLP, ZAR, TRY, IDR, PHP and KRW. Structurally, we are also short the RMB and SAR. Finally, we continue receiving rates in Mexico, Colombia, India, China, Malaysia, Korea, Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan and Egypt. Central banks in the majority of EM countries will continue cutting rates, but we find better value in these fixed-income markets.  Arthur Budaghyan Chief Emerging Markets Strategist arthurb@bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1     The P/E ratio inversely correlates to the discount rate: P/E ratio = (Payout rate x (1 + Growth rate))/ (Discount rate – Growth rate) Equities Recommendations Currencies, Credit And Fixed-Income Recommendations

An analysis on Turkey is available below.   Highlights Due to the sizable stimulus announced by the NPC, we are upgrading our outlook for Chinese growth for this year. Nevertheless, in terms of investment strategy, we are reluctant to chase China-related plays higher at the moment. Rising geopolitical tensions between the US and China will likely produce a pullback in China-related risk assets, providing a better entry point in the months ahead. The RMB is set to depreciate dragging down emerging Asian currencies. There is evidence that the equity rally from late-March lows has been driven or supercharged by retail investors worldwide. Such retail-driven manias never end well, though they can last for a while. Feature Emerging market equities are facing a critical technical resistance. Chart I-1 shows that over the past decade, EM share prices often found support at the horizontal line during selloffs. The latter could now become a resistance point. In turn, the Australian dollar and the S&P 500 have climbed to their 200-day moving averages (Chart I-2). Chart I-1EM Stocks Are Facing A Technical Resistance EM Stocks Are Facing A Technical Resistance EM Stocks Are Facing A Technical Resistance Chart I-2S&P 500 And AUD Are At Critical Technical Juncture S&P 500 And AUD Are At Critical Technical Juncture S&P 500 And AUD Are At Critical Technical Juncture   Having rallied strongly in the past two months, it is reasonable to expect that global risk assets will take a breather as investors assess the economic and geopolitical outlooks. China: Aggressive Stimulus… China has embarked on another round of aggressive stimulus. The government program approved by the National People’s Congress (NPC) last week laid out the following macro policy objectives: Stabilize employment. The NPC has pledged to create more than 9 million new jobs in urban areas. Although this is lower than last year’s target of more than 11 million new jobs, it is very ambitious given the number of layoffs that have occurred year-to-date. Chart I-3China: Money/Credit Is Set To Re-Accelerate China: Money/Credit Is Set To Re-Accelerate China: Money/Credit Is Set To Re-Accelerate Significantly accelerate the growth rate of broad money supply and total social financing relative to last year. Indeed, broad money growth accelerated in April and will continue to move higher (Chart I-3). Lending to enterprises and households as well as overall bank asset growth have all accelerated (Chart I-3, bottom two panels). Boost aggregate government spending (budgetary and quasi-fiscal) growth to 13.2% in 2020 versus 9.5% last year.   Local government’s special bond quotas have been set at RMB 3.75 trillion yuan, compared with RMB 2.15 trillion last year. The central government will issue special bonds in the order of 1 trillion yuan. The proceeds will be transferred to local governments to support tax and fee reductions, as well as to boost consumption and investment.  Support SMEs. The government will extend its beneficial loan-repayment policy for SMEs until March 2021. It will extend exemptions for SMEs on social security contributions, VAT and other fees and taxes through to the end of this year. The government estimates a total of RMB 2.5 trillion in tax and fee reductions for companies in 2020. Table I-1 details potential scenarios for the credit and fiscal spending impulse (CFI). In our baseline scenario, the CFI will rise to 15.5% of GDP by year-end (Chart I-4). In short, in 2020 the CFI will likely be larger than it was in 2015-’16 and closer to its 2012 level. However, it will still fall short of the 2009-2010 surge. Table I-1Simulation On Credit And Fiscal Spending Impulse For 2020 EM Stocks Are At A Critical Resistance Level EM Stocks Are At A Critical Resistance Level Chart I-4Our Projections For The Credit And Fiscal Spending Impulse Our Projections For The Credit And Fiscal Spending Impulse Our Projections For The Credit And Fiscal Spending Impulse In summary, it is fair to say that for now, the authorities have abandoned their deleveraging objective and are encouraging a substantial acceleration of both debt and credit. However, it will take time before the stimulus filters through the economy and boosts growth. This will be the case because of the following persistent headwinds: First, the reduced willingness of households and enterprises to spend. The top panel of Chart I-5 reveals that consumers’ marginal propensity to spend is falling. Enterprises’ willingness to invest continues to trend lower. Historically, companies’ willingness to invest has been a good indicator for industrial metals prices. So far it has not validated the advance in base metals (Chart I-5, bottom panel). The rationale for this correlation is that Chinese companies account for 50-55% of global industrial metals demand. Second, the COVID-19 economic downturn in China was much worse than previous downturns, and the financial health of companies and households is considerably poorer than before. This is why it will take very large amounts of stimulus to produce even a moderate recovery. In particular, a portion of the credit expansion will go toward plugging operating cash flow deficits at companies rather than to augment investment. For example, in the US, commercial and industrial loan growth surged in 2007/08 and this year (Chart I-6). In all of those cases, the underlying cause for credit acceleration was companies drawing on their credit lines to close their negative operating cashflow gaps. Chart I-5China: Households And Enterprises Are Less Willing To Spend China: Households And Enterprises Are Less Willing To Spend China: Households And Enterprises Are Less Willing To Spend Chart I-6US Loan Growth Spikes In Recessions US Loan Growth Spikes In Recessions US Loan Growth Spikes In Recessions The same phenomenon is presently occurring in China. This entails more credit origination will be required in China in this cycle before we witness a revival in capital spending. Third, geopolitical tensions between the US and China will escalate further in the months ahead. We elaborate on this in more detail below. As far as China’s growth outlook is concerned, rising geopolitical tensions with the US will weigh on both consumer and business confidence. On the whole, due to the sizable stimulus announced by the NPC, we are upgrading our outlook for Chinese growth for this year. Nevertheless, in terms of investment strategy, we are reluctant to chase China-related plays higher at the moment. Rising geopolitical tensions will likely produce a pullback in China-related risk assets, providing a better entry point in the months ahead. Chart I-7Chinese Economy: Still Very Weak Chinese Economy: Still Very Weak Chinese Economy: Still Very Weak In addition, the mainland economy is still undergoing post-lockdown normalization – not recovery. Both capital spending and household consumption are still in recession (Chart I-7).    Bottom Line: China is yet again resorting to aggressive fiscal and credit stimulus. Mainland growth is bound to improve over the remainder of the year. However, financial markets have run a bit ahead of themselves, and we will wait for a pullback before recommending China-related plays.  …But Geopolitics Is A Major Risk Despite an improving growth outlook, Asian and China-related risk assets could struggle in the months ahead due to escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and China. On the surface, the COVID-19 crisis seems to be the culprit behind rising tensions between the two nations. However, the pandemic has only accelerated an otherwise unavoidable confrontation between the existing superpower and the rising one. BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy team has been writing about cumulating tensions and the potential for them to boil over in the months before the US election. The contours of the rise in geopolitical tensions will be as follows: President Trump’s chances of re-election have declined, with the recession gripping the US economy and unemployment surging. There is little doubt that he will use external foes to rally the nation behind the flag. Blaming China for the pandemic and acting tough is probably the only way for Trump to switch his campaign’s nucleus from the economy to foreign policy, which will raise the odds of his election victory. The US administration will not resort to import tariffs this time around. Going forward, the administration’s goal will be cutting China’s access to foreign technology. Technology in general and semiconductors in particular will be the key battleground in this new cold war. The US will also step up its pressure on multinationals to move production out of China. The broader idea is to impede China’s technological advance. Even though the US rhetoric on China’s policies toward Hong Kong will be tough, there is little the US can do or will do regarding Hong Kong. Rather, the more important battleground will be Taiwan and its semiconductor industry. Finally, China’s political leadership cannot tolerate being perceived as weak domestically in the face of US pressures. They will retaliate against the US. One form of retaliation against Trump could be pushing North Korea to test its strategic military weapons that could undermine Trump’s foreign policy credibility in the US. Another form of retaliation could be tolerating moderate currency depreciation. The latter will challenge Trump’s claims that he has been victorious in dealing with China. The latest decision to ban US and foreign companies from accepting orders from Huawei and the slide in the value of the RMB are consistent with these narratives. To our surprise, however, financial markets in general and Asian markets in particular have not sold off meaningfully in response to the US ban on Huawei and renewed RMB depreciation. Critically, China is the world’s largest consumer of semiconductors, accounting for 35% of global semiconductor demand. Restricting Chinese purchases would be negative for global semiconductor producers. China has been aware of the risk of US restrictions on its imports of semiconductors and has been ramping up its semi imports since 2018. Semi imports have been booming even though smartphone sales had been shrinking (Chart I-8). This is a sign of large semiconductor restocking in China which has helped global semi sales in general and TSMC sales in particular in the past 18 months. In brief, major semi restocking by China in the past 18 months along with the ban on sales to Huawei all but ensure that global semiconductor sales will be weak this year. It does not seem that global semi stocks in general and Asian ones in particular are pricing in this outcome. Global semiconductor stocks are a hair below their all-time highs, and their trailing P/E ratio is at 21. Specifically, given Huawei is the second-largest customer of TSMC, the latter’s sales will be negatively affected (Chart I-9). Chart I-8Has China Been Stockpiling Semiconductors? Has China Been Stockpiling Semiconductors? Has China Been Stockpiling Semiconductors? Chart I-9TSMC Has Benefited From China Stockpiling Semiconductors TSMC Has Benefited From China Stockpiling Semiconductors TSMC Has Benefited From China Stockpiling Semiconductors Finally, both DRAM and NAND prices are falling anew (Chart I-10). Further, DRAM revenue proxy correlates with Korean tech stocks and points to lower share prices (Chart I-11). Chart I-10Semiconductor Prices Have Begun Falling Semiconductor Prices Have Begun Falling Semiconductor Prices Have Begun Falling Chart I-11Semiconductor Prices Are Still Deflating DRAM Revenue Proxy And Korean Tech Stocks Semiconductor Prices Are Still Deflating DRAM Revenue Proxy And Korean Tech Stocks Semiconductor Prices Are Still Deflating DRAM Revenue Proxy And Korean Tech Stocks Crucially, Chinese, Korean and Taiwanese stocks account for 60% of the MSCI EM equity market cap. Hence, a selloff in these bourses will weigh on the EM equity index. Chart I-12 shows that the latest drawdown in these North Asian equity markets was relatively small compared to the drop in the rest of the EM equity universe. Hence, Chinese, Korean and Taiwanese share prices are not discounting a lot of bad news making them vulnerable to the geopolitical risks that lie ahead. Financial markets in Asia are very complacent to mounting geopolitical risks stemming from the US-China confrontation. The RMB is set to depreciate dragging down emerging Asian currencies. Chart I-12North Asian Stocks Versus The Rest Of EM North Asian Stocks Versus The Rest Of EM North Asian Stocks Versus The Rest Of EM Bottom Line: Financial markets in Asia are very complacent to mounting geopolitical risks stemming from the US-China confrontation. The RMB is set to depreciate dragging down emerging Asian currencies. The large share of Chinese, Korean and Taiwanese stocks in the MSCI EM equity index implies significant downside risks to the EM equity benchmark. The Global Economic Outlook As economies around the world open, the level of economic activity will certainly begin to rise. The opening of shops, offices and various other facilities will result in a partial normalization and an increase in economic activities.  However, we cannot call this a recovery. Rather it is just a snapback from the lockdowns which both equity and credit markets have already fully priced in. The outlook for global share prices and credit markets depends on what happens to the global economy following this post-lockdown snapback. Will the snapback be followed by an actual recovery or will the level of activity stagnate at low levels? For now, our sense is that following the initial snapback a U-shaped recovery is the most likely global scenario. This does not exclude the possibility that activity in some sectors/countries will follow a square root trajectory.  From a global macro perspective, we have the following observations to share: Certain industries will likely experience stagflation. Due to social distancing measures, they will be forced to limit their output/capacity and compensate for their increased costs by charging higher prices. In this group, we would include airlines, restaurants, and other service sector businesses. The short-term outlook for consumer spending is contingent on fiscal stimulus. A material reduction in fiscal support for households will weigh on their spending capacity. Capital spending will remain subdued outside China’s stimulus-driven local government and SOE investment outlays, and outside the technology sector, generally. Critically, economic activity in many countries and industries will remain below pre-pandemic levels until late this year. This implies that despite the snapback, some businesses will still be operating below or close to their breakeven points. This will have ramifications on their ability to service debt and on their willingness to invest and hire. Any rise in government bond yields worldwide will be limited as central banks in both DM and EM will cap yields by augmenting their purchase of government and in some cases corporate bonds. We discussed EM QE programs in detail in last week’s report. Bottom Line: It is tempting to interpret the post-lockdown snapback in economic activity as a recovery. However, the nature and depth of this recession is unique. Investors should consider both the direction of economic indicators and the level of economic activity in relation to a company’s breakeven point. This is an extremely difficult task. And that is in addition to gauging the odds of a second wave of COVID-19 infections later this year. In the context of such complexities facing investors, there is astonishing evidence that the recent equity rally has been driven by unsophisticated retail investors. A Retail-Driven Equity Rally There is growing evidence that the equity rally from late-March lows has been driven or supercharged by retail investors, worldwide. There is growing evidence that the equity rally from late-March lows has been driven or supercharged by retail investors, worldwide. Such retail-driven manias never end well, though they can last for a while. The following articles corroborate the worldwide phenomenon that retail investors have been opening broker accounts en masse and investing in stocks: Bored Day Traders Locked at Home Are Now Obsessed With Options Frustrated sports punters turn to US stock market Coronavirus spawns new generation of Japanese stock pickers Stuck at Home, More Filipinos Try Luck at Stock Investing It is fair to assume that retail investors do very little fundamental analysis. Not surprisingly, since March global share prices have decoupled from profit expectations. Although some professional investors have no doubt also played the rally, surveys of asset managers and traders suggest that generally they have stayed lukewarm on stocks. Specifically, the net long position of asset managers and leveraged funds in various US equity index futures remains very low (Chart I-13). Chart I-14 shows that US traders’ and professional individual investors’ sentiment on US stocks are at multi-year lows. Only US investment advisors have become fairly bullish again (Chart I-14, bottom panel). Chart I-13Fund Managers Have Stayed Lukewarm On Stocks Fund Managers Have Stayed Lukewarm On Stocks Fund Managers Have Stayed Lukewarm On Stocks Chart I-14Professional Investors’ Sentiment On Stocks Have Been Subdued Professional Investors Sentiment On Stocks Have Been Subdued Professional Investors Sentiment On Stocks Have Been Subdued Who will capitulate first: retail or professional investors? It is hard to predict the behavior of investors but, if we had to guess, our take could be summed up as follows:  If geopolitical tensions escalate much more or the number of COVID-19 inflections in some large countries rises anew, retail investors will likely sell before professional investors step in. In this scenario, share prices will drop considerably. In the case of an absence of geopolitical tensions or a new wave of infections, it is hard to see how economic data that is improving could lead to a substantial drawdown in equities even if the level of activity remains very depressed. In this case, corrections will be small and short-lived. Investment Strategy Chart I-15Beware Of Breakdowns Beware Of Breakdowns Beware Of Breakdowns For global equity portfolios, we continue recommending underweighting EM stocks. Regardless of the direction of global share prices, EM will continue underperforming DM (Chart I-15, top panel). The basis for this is rising geopolitical tensions in China and weakness in the RMB will spill over into other emerging Asian currencies (Chart I-15, bottom panel). We continue recommending short positions in the RMB and KRW versus the US dollar. In terms of the absolute performance of EM equities and credit markets, as well as EM currencies versus the greenback, we recommend being patient. Global and EM financial markets are presently at a critical juncture, as illustrated in Charts 1 and 2 on pages 1 and 2. If these and some other markets meaningfully break above current levels of resistance, we will upgrade our stance on EM stocks and credit markets and close our short positions in EM currencies versus the US dollar. If they fail to do so, a considerable selloff is likely to follow. As to EM local currency bonds, we are long duration but cautious on EM currencies. For the full list of our recommendations for EM equity, credit, local fixed-income and currency markets, please refer to pages 18 and 19.   Arthur Budaghyan Chief Emerging Markets Strategist arthurb@bcaresearch.com   Lin Xiang, CFA Research Analyst linx@bcaresearch.com     Turkish Lira: Facing A Litmus Test The Turkish lira has rolled over at its resistance level on a total return (including carry) basis (Chart II-1). The spot rate versus the US dollar is at its 2018 low. In short, the exchange rate is facing a litmus test. The culprit of a potential downleg in the lira is an enormous monetary deluge. Chart II-2 reveals that broad money supply growth has accelerated to 35% from a year ago. Local currency money supply is skyrocketing because the central bank and commercial banks are engaged in rampant money creation and public debt monetization. Chart II-1Turkish Lira (Including Carry): A Good Point To Short Turkish Lira (Including Carry): A Good Point To Short Turkish Lira (Including Carry): A Good Point To Short Chart II-2Turkey’s Broad Money: The Sky Is The Limit Turkey's Broad Money: The Sky Is The Limit Turkey's Broad Money: The Sky Is The Limit While such macro policies could benefit economic growth in the short term, they also herald growing inflationary pressures and currency devaluation. First, Turkish commercial banks have been on a government bonds buying binge since 2018 (Chart II-3, top panel). They presently own 62% of total local currency government bonds, up from 45% in early 2018. In addition, the central bank is de-facto engaging in government debt monetization. The Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) has bought TRY 40 billion of government bonds in the secondary market since March (Chart II-3, bottom panel). When a central bank or commercial bank buys a local currency asset from a non-bank, a new local currency deposit is created in the banking system and the money supply expands.  Chart II-3Turkey: Public Debt Monetization In Full Force Turkey: Public Debt Monetization In Full Force Turkey: Public Debt Monetization In Full Force Chart II-4Turkey: Loan Growth Exceeds 30% Turkey: Loan Growth Exceeds 30% Turkey: Loan Growth Exceeds 30% Second, the commercial banks’ local currency loan growth has surged to 32% (Chart II-4). Government lending schemes and newly introduced regulations are incentivizing commercial banks to continue lending in order to boost domestic demand. In particular, state owned banks are providing loans at interest rates well below both the policy and inflation rates. The most likely outcome from such policies is rampant capital misallocation and an increase in non-performing loans. The former will weigh on productivity in the long turn. Third, the central bank has been providing enormous amounts of liquidity to commercial banks (Chart II-5, top panel). The latter’s local currency excess reserves – which are exclusively created out of thin air by the central bank - have surged (Chart II-5, bottom panel). In fact, the effective policy rate has been hovering below the actual policy rate, suggesting that there is an excess liquidity overflow in the banking system. In a nutshell, the central bank has been providing fuel to commercial banks to expand money supply via the purchases of local currency government bonds and loan origination. Fourth, an overly loose monetary stance will lead to higher inflation and currency devaluation. Moreover, wages continue to expand at an annual rate of 15-20%, confirming the fact that inflationary pressures are genuine and broad within this economy (Chart II-6). Higher inflation, and the consequent loss of purchasing power, is leading residents to switch their holdings of liras to foreign currencies. Chart II-5Central Banks' Liquidity Provision To Banks Central Banks' Liquidity Provision To Banks Central Banks' Liquidity Provision To Banks Chart II-6Turkey: A Sign Of Genuine Inflation Turkey: A Sign Of Genuine Inflation Turkey: A Sign Of Genuine Inflation Higher inflation, and the consequent loss of purchasing power, is leading residents to switch their holdings of liras to foreign currencies. Finally, Turkey’s current account deficit is set to widen, and the central bank’s net foreign currency reserves are non-existent at best. Booming credit growth will keep domestic demand and imports stronger than they otherwise would be. In the meantime, the complete collapse in tourism revenues and Turkey’s large foreign debt obligations, estimated at $160 billion over the next six months, entail negative balance of payment dynamics. Barring capital controls, Turkey will not be able to preclude further currency depreciation. Investment Implications Short the Turkish lira versus the US dollar. We recommend dedicated equity investors underweight Turkish equities and credit relative to their respective EM benchmarks. Also, we are reiterating our short Turkish banks / long Russian banks position. Local currency yields will offer little protection against currency depreciation. As such, investors should underweight domestic bonds.   Andrija Vesic Associate Editor andrijav@bcaresearch.com   Footnotes Equities Recommendations Currencies, Credit And Fixed-Income Recommendations

Chart 1 The Trend Is Your Friend The Trend Is Your Friend The SPX made a run for the technically important 200-day moving average and set it sights to fresh recovery highs. Three key drivers underpin stocks and dominate the news flow: First, surfacing of positive news on a coronavirus vaccine fast-track with the FDA approving MRNA’s candidate for a phase II trial. Second, the Fed reiterating its commitment to ZIRP and QE5 (Chart 1). And third, the quintuplet tech titans (MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN & FB) reporting solid profits and April guidance, thus alleviating investors’ fears of a complete breakdown in tech revenues and EPS. Tack on the World War-like fiscal easing packages (Chart 2) and the path of least resistance remains higher for the S&P 500 in the coming 9-12 months. Please see this Monday’s Weekly Report for more details. Chart 2 The Trend Is Your Friend The Trend Is Your Friend