Highlights The European economy has outperformed that of the U.S. recently, prompting investors to bring forward their estimates of the first ECB rate hike. To make this judgement, one really needs to be positive on EM economies in…

Special Report

Highlights Dusting Off The BCA Bond Model: As central bankers moving away from the hyper-easy monetary policies of the post-crisis era, reverting back to more traditional bond investing tools, like our BCA Bond Model - which focuses on…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy A window has opened up for utilities outperformance. Upgrade to overweight on a short-term (1-3 month) view. Leading indicators of beverage sales have improved, heralding an upgrading in depressed…

Highlights The locomotive of the U.S. economy, the consumer, remains supported by powerful tailwinds. The Fed will be able to tighten monetary policy relative to other central banks by a higher degree than the market appreciates. The…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Internal dynamics warn that a broad market consolidation phase has begun. The jump in growth vs. value stocks has provided an opportunity to shift to a neutral style bias. Transports have sold off…

Highlights Beyond the healthcare vote and its implication for Trump's fiscal stimulus, other risks lurk in the background. Market complacency is at historical extremes but Chinese reflation is rapidly dissipating. The euro could…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Contrary to popular perception, non-cyclical sectors have led the market so far this year, while deep cyclical sectors are breaking down, in relative performance terms. Our models point to more of the…

Highlights The global economy has turned the cap and is on a sustainable uptrend. Yet, the AUD and CAD have over-discounted the improvements and are at risk of suffering a disappointment if global manufacturing activity remains firm…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy A relapse in the global financials sector threatens to spill into U.S. financials as credit growth sinks. Bank equities are the most vulnerable to such a phase, given their reliance on rising interest…

Highlights Risk assets have rallied smartly, yet key indicators like the relative performance of Swedish stocks or the price of kiwi equities are not corroborating these moves. With the Fed now very likely to increase rates in March,…