Highlights U.S. Treasuries - Fair Value: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield now appears 7 bps expensive on our model. Investors should maintain below-benchmark duration and continue to monitor bullish sentiment toward the U.S. dollar for…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The market has quietly adopted a less cyclical sectoral tone since yearend, a trend that could amplify over the coming months, even if overall appreciation persists. Defense stocks have grown into…
The Tactical Asset Allocation model can provide investment recommendations which diverge from those outlined in our regular weekly publications. The model has a much shorter investment horizon - namely, one month - and thus attempts to…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Add the S&P asset manager & custody banks index to the high-conviction overweight list. Prospects for higher interest rates bode well for a catch up phase with the rest of the financials sector.…
Highlights Key Portfolio Highlights Improved world economic growth and rising inflation expectations have buoyed global equities (Chart 1). The downside is that financial conditions are tightening and U.S. dollar-based liquidity is…
Highlights The USD bull case is now well known by the market, but this is not strong enough a hurdle to end the dollar's run. The behavior of positioning, the U.S. basic balance of payments, interest rate expectations, and relative…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Food price deflation bodes well for increased volumes, and by extension, packaging stocks. Upgrade to overweight. Prospects for intensifying market and economic volatility argue for reestablishing a…
Highlights Signing executive orders and memoranda post-Inauguration is a common tactic for new presidents. Unfortunately for investors, political rhetoric has caused uncertainty to surge, while actions affecting profitability have been…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Pricing power has improved across a number of industries, with the exception of technology, a necessary development to sustain an overall profit recovery. The S&P railroads index has surged to the…