Technical

We do not expect Russia and OPEC members to reach a production-limiting agreement at the April 17 meeting in Doha, but that does not diminish our bullish expectations for a rebalancing of oil markets in H2 2016.

A lack of confirming growth indicators puts the equity advance at risk. Lift hypermarkets to overweight, stick with homebuilders and fade any small and/or mid cap relative strength.

Fed dovishness is weakening the U.S. dollar. As the ECB and BoJ move to the sidelines and the Fed remains reluctant to hike rates, the euro and Japanese yen should continue to recover versus the greenback.

Several tail risks appear less ominous compared to last month. Nonetheless, the earnings outlook has not improved and the FOMC will turn more hawkish ahead of the June meeting. Stay defensively positioned.

Renewed strength in the U.S. equity market sponsored by another round of global monetary easing has revived the debate about whether it is finally time to transition out of our <i>alpha</i>-generating defensive portfolio strategy. This <i>Special Report</i> examines the critical factors shaping this investment decision.

The British pound may be prone to further weakness in the coming months as the odds of a Brexit rise.

There are no indicators that consistently lead share prices or can differentiate cyclical bull markets from short-term oversold rebounds. Investors who are right on the big-picture view will be rewarded, and <i>vice versa</i>. From a big-picture perspective, our bias remains that EM/China growth will not pick up sustainably, and that EM EPS will not recover materially in the next 12 months. Therefore, we recommend fading this rally.

A dovish Fed bought the bounce a bit more time, but there is little incentive to add portfolio risk. Buy consumer finance, especially vs. banks, and expect communications equipment outperformance.

A surprisingly dovish outcome from this week's FOMC meeting has led to broad-based weakness in the U.S. dollar. The monetary policy divergence supporting the dollar may have peaked.

Confirming indicators still do not validate the oversold rally. Fade the materials sector bounce, by selling steel down to underweight.