Highlights Treasuries: Keep portfolio duration close to benchmark on a 6-12 month horizon, but continue to hold tactical overlay positions that will profit from modestly higher bond yields: Overweight TIPS versus nominal Treasuries,…
Overweight While we are neutral the S&P tech sector, we continue to employ a defensive over aggressive tech strategy and prefer software and services to hardware and equipment. The S&P software index in particular has…
Highlights Social distancing must persist to prevent dangerous super-spreading of COVID-19. The jobs recovery will be much weaker than the output recovery, because the sectors most hurt by social distancing have a very high labour…
An analysis on Turkey is available below. Highlights Due to the sizable stimulus announced by the NPC, we are upgrading our outlook for Chinese growth for this year. Nevertheless, in terms of investment strategy, we are…
Highlights Risk assets continue to ignore the dire state of the economy. “Don’t fight the Fed” will dictate investment policy for the coming months. Populism and supply-chain diversification will…
Highlights Investment Grade Sector Valuation: Our investment grade corporate bond sector valuation models for the US, euro area, UK, Canada and Australia show some common messages, as markets have adjusted to a virus-stricken world.…
Underweight The S&P communications equipment index has given up its gains over the course of 2020. We remain bearish as the macro outlook still spells trouble and this positioning is in line with our newly formed view of…
Highlights German bunds and Swiss bonds are no longer haven assets. The haven assets are the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and US T-bonds. Gold is less effective as a haven asset. During this year’s coronavirus crash, the gold…