This morning’s CPI report marginally tips the scales in favor of a September rate cut.
The yen’s discount, surplus, and rising real rates line up for a multi-quarter surge. Find out why EUR/JPY is the first short and when USD/JPY follows.
We will only move to a fully defensive stance if the “whites of the recession’s eyes” appear. So far, they have not. We will be increasingly looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when the next turning point in markets may…
BCA’s Commodity strategists remain long gold/short LME copper and have initiated an outright short in LME copper as a cyclical trade. The US copper tariff will redirect supply away from the US, replenishing depleted inventories…
The Q2 Business Outlook Survey showed weaker sentiment and subdued hiring and investment intentions, reinforcing the case for deeper BoC rate cuts and our overweight in Canadian bonds. The BOS indicator ticked down to -2.4 from -2.1…
The fact that the US economy has been slower to deteriorate than in past cycles is entirely consistent with our kinked Phillips curve framework. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive…
US equity investors should heed warning signals from US corporate bond yields. There are early red flags for EM share prices. Global trade will shrink in H2 2025. China’s economic tailwinds from H1 2025 – fiscal and export…
We discuss the implications of this morning’s CPI report and the relative attractiveness of 2/5 Treasury curve steepeners.
We will abandon our recession call if US economic data show clear signs of stabilization over the summer months. For now, that has not happened. Maintain a modest underweight to stocks but look to get more defensive if MacroQuant’s…