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Recession Risk Is Back

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
China: Caixin PMIs Point To Low Growth As National People’s Congress Begins
China’s February Caixin PMIs showed growth remains tepid. The composite ticked up to 51.5 from 51.1. Services are still showing a very faint expansion at 51.4, with manufacturing ticking up to 50.8. The message from the official NBS PMIs was similar.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Fed Beige Book Shows Slowing Growth, And Rising Price Pressures
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows a slowing economy, a moderating labor market, and rising price pressures.  The latest Beige Book is in line with other sentiment indicators showing slower growth and decreased confidence following the post-election…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
ISM Services Sends A Stagflationary Signal
ISM Services Sends Stagflationary Signal …
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Keep An Eye On This Inflation Chart
Leading US growth indicators have slowed, with economic surprises now in negative territory. However, Monday’s ISM Manufacturing showed that while activity is slowing due to tariffs uncertainty, supply-side price pressures are increasing. Our Price…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Trade War Is On
The Trump administration launched its biggest trade action on Tuesday, levying 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, and an additional 10% to current tariffs on Chinese imports. Given its crucial role in US supply chains, Canadian energy only sees a 10%…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
What Will Hold Trump Back?

Trump will pull back from the trade war when stocks approach bear market territory. He will not withdraw from NATO. Favor European stocks on fiscal policy.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Geopolitics Month Ahead (Tariffs, Nukes, Two Sessions)

The tariffs on Canada and Mexico will come into effect as scheduled while the tariffs on China will be doubled. In the Middle East, Iranian response to any attack will threaten Middle Eastern oil supply. Meanwhile, Chinese fiscal support will surprise to the upside at the Two Sessions. But Trump's China policy will cause volatility. Now that the stock market is cracking, reinitiate defensive trades, such as long treasuries versus US stocks and long global defensives versus cyclicals.

Geopolitical Strategy by Jesse Anak Kuri
The Tariff Shock And The Fed’s Response

Core PCE inflation was tame this morning, but with large tariffs looming we anticipate loftier inflation readings in the months ahead.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
GeopoliticalUSPoliticalWebcast
Trump's First Month: What Happened, What's Next
Please join Chief US Political/Geopolitical Strategist Matt Gertken for a Webcast on Friday, February 28 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET).
Geopolitical Strategy, US Political Strategy Webcast

Related Topics

Court Rulings Fiscal Legislation Monetary Regulation