Increasing gray-zone confrontations and another round of tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade are not being reflected in commodity prices. This is keeping inflationary pressures emanating from the real economy subdued. That said,…
The market’s pricing of a soft landing means that geopolitical risks are becoming more, not less, relevant in 2024. US domestic divisions will invite challenges as foreign powers rightly fear that US policy will turn more hawkish…
The attacks on Red Sea commercial tankers by Iran’s Yemeni proxies, the Houthi movement, are an inflation risk inasmuch as they lengthen voyage times for any shipping forced to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The risk of an expansion…
Democrats are favored to win the election until recession materializes. But recession risks are high. Investors should adopt a defensive and conservative strategy in 2024 amid extreme US policy uncertainty.
Global instability will continue in 2024 – whatever happens afterward. Slowing economies will exacerbate already high geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty stemming from the US election and foreign challenges to US leadership.…
This report looks at the prospects for the Swedish krona, following the pause by the Riksbank.
