Executive Summary The US inflation surprise increases the odds of both congressional gridlock and recession, which increases uncertainty over US leadership past 2024 and reduces the US’s ability to lower tensions with China and…

Special Report

Executive Summary Iran Reaches Nuclear Breakout  The next geopolitical crisis will stem from the Middle East. The US, Russia, and China are striving for greater influence there and Iran’s nuclear quest is reaching a…

Listen to a short summary of this report.       Executive Summary A Tremendous Inflow Into US Government Bonds  Multiple frameworks exist for managing currencies. These include forecasting growth…

Special Report

Executive Summary Autocracy Hurts Productivity  Over the next six-to-18 months, the Xi Jinping administration will “let 100 flowers bloom” – i.e., relax a range of government policies to secure China’…

Special Report

Executive Summary Favor ASEAN And The Philippines  Southeast Asia is suffering from fading macro and geopolitical tailwinds but there are still investment opportunities on a relative basis. The peace dividend, globalization…

Special Report

Executive Summary The Declining Value Of An Old Friendship  India may buy cheap oil from Russia, but oil alone cannot expand this partnership. India needs to maintain a balance of power against China and Pakistan. With…

Executive Summary The Ukraine war reinforces our key view that commodity producers will use their geopolitical leverage this year. The market is growing complacent again about Russian risks. Iran is part of the same dynamic. If US-…

Special Report

Executive Summary Major EM’s Defense Spends Will Be Comparable To That Of Developed Countries ​​​​ Tectonic geopolitical trends are taking shape in Emerging Markets (EMs) today that will leave an indelible imprint on the…

Special Report

Dear client, This week we are sending you a joint Special Report with my colleague Chester Ntonifor, Foreign Exchange Strategist. The Special Report provides our outlook on the RMB. I trust that you will find the report very insightful.…

Special Report

Executive Summary The RMB And Real Interest Rates  The RMB has overshot and will likely consolidate gains in the coming months. That said, the yuan remains underpinned by a current account surplus, positive real rates, and a…